After B-COVID EUA Award - WHAT NEXT?
Gilead's Remdesivir scored an FDA emergency use authorization in May 2020 and a full approval in October 2020. Remdesivir generated $2.8B in 2020 and is projecting $2B-$3B in Remdesivir sales in 2021.
Regeneron's monoclonal antibody-cocktail treatment (Casirivimab and imdevimab t) was awarded an EUA on 11/21/2020, halfway through the 4Q/2020, and still rung-up $144M in U.S. government sales and added $1.6B to their 2021 revenue projections.
Lilly's monoclonal antibody-cocktail treatment (Bamlanivimab and Etesevimab) was awarded an EUA on 02/09/2021. The drugmaker made $810 million from the two drugs combined in the first quarter this year (2021) and estimates $1 billion to $1.5 billion in revenue from the treatments through 2021.
This brings us to the "WHAT NEXT"?
I cite these 3 COVID-EUA examples to show how quickly, with sufficient pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity (PMC), IPIX could generate billion$ in sales in a mere 3-12 months from the date of issuance an EUA.
IPIX has no PMC, but Leo is definitely in the "driver's seat" when it comes to lining-up manufacturing partners. Drug companies know that...in this moment...COVID-19 is the most lucrative of all indications and any way they can get into the game will probably result in hundreds of millions...if not billions for their revenues.
This is not news to Leo and, IMO, he has already been busy scouring the planet for excess PMC. Unlike the mRNA vaccines that have over 200-steps in their mfg process, my understanding is that "B" is relatively simple to make with low cost materials.
IMO, once B-COVID is awarded an EUA, Leo should, at the least, have a billion-dose PMC in place. The U.S., EU, UK, WHO and others will want to stockpile B-COVID in the same way they did remdesivir. Some of this stockpiling will be for national defense purposes. This is how Gilead made $2.8B 8 months after receiving an EUA and projected 2021 sales of $3B, all from a drug, remdesivir, that a major 5K WHO-study that found it had little to no effect on COVID-19.
B-COVID COULD GENERATE A BILLION OR MORE IN $ALES BEFORE A P-3 STARTS
People like to judge Leo from past events/happennings, but I submit my billion-dose PMC metric is a way to see if Leo is truly on top of one of the most important things that will lead to billion-dollar profits for IPIX. When (not if) B-COVID receives a EUA be sure to note Leo's comments pertaining to PMC and his plans to quickly mfg & disseminate B-COVID.
If I know Leo (and I think I do), the award of the EUA will not be a "start your engines" moment, the engines will already be running.
