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Crude Oil Price Update – Main Trend is Up, But Momentum Has Shifted to Downside
By: James Hyerczyk | May 7, 2021

• The direction of the June WTI crude oil futures contract into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $64.84.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures inching higher late in the session on Friday after posting a mostly two-side trade throughout the session. Both Brent and WTI are on track for second consecutive weekly gains as easing restrictions on movement in the United States and Europe, recovering factory operations and coronavirus vaccinations pave the way for a revival in fuel demand.

At 20:14 GMT, June WTI gold futures are trading $64.85, up $0.14 or +0.22%.

Prices fell early in the session following a report that showed China crude imports fell 0.2% in April from a year earlier to 40.36 million tonnes, or 9.82 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since December.

Traders may have also overreacted to a U.S. jobs report that come in weaker-than-expected.


Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of a closing price reversal top on May 5.

A trade through $66.76 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through $62.91.

The minor range is $62.91 to $66.76. The market is currently straddling its 50% level at $64.84.

The short-term range is $67.29 to $57.29. Its retracement zone at $63.47 to $62.29 is the nearest support area. This zone is also controlling the near-term direction of the market.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the June WTI crude oil futures contract into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $64.84.

A close over $64.84 will indicate the presence of buyers. They are defending the market against a sell-off and could be setting up for a retest of $67.76.

A close under $64.84 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a test of the retracement zone at $63.47 to $62.29. And perhaps a change in trend if $62.91 is violated.

Side Notes

Gasoline inventories are likely to be the driving force in the market over the near-term.

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