I don't make many bets in bio, mostly because it takes so long for any bio investment to realize growth and you have to essentially have either insider information or ESP to know when the big pop day comes. But I have with Inovio (it is my only bio investment now) for several reasons:
1) As you say, the technology is innovative and has created a new category of vaccine. Unlike the other vaccine categories, they dominate this domain.
2) As I stated bio investment takes many years for a return, mostly because it is an exercise in proof of concept, validation, and establishing clinical efficacy. Bashers say they have been at it for 40+ years with little to show for it. I see them reaping the benefits of 40+ years of effort in identifying the right way to execute this difficult to implement technology. They have several candidates nearing FDA approval. So without a crystal ball, I can only buy in when a company is near this stage.
3) I don’t buy into just any bio company with an IND near FDA approval but I did with Inovio because there is a real need for their product line. They have smartly refocused on cancer and with the exception of COVID. Immuno-therapy and combinatorial immuno-therapy are the real cutting edge of how we will defeat cancer and Inovio holds at least have that solution in their hands.
4) Many biotechs fail because they do not have the infrastructure to hit the market and make sales. Inovio has made key partnerships in bridging this gulf and will be well positioned to enter the market with their oncology and rare disease therapies.
5) Many bought in for their COVID solution, I bought in because I saw a company struggling to validate their technology and COVID was the catalyst that got them validation and recognition. They will have an easier time with their pipeline validation because of COVID. So from my perspective, COVID is a short term objective, the pipeline is where the real value lies.
Bio is a patient person’s investment arena. You will weather much and be confronted with doubts but remember the principal reasons that brought you to this investment and ask yourself whether the situation has fundamentally changed. If all the reasons are still there, then you have no reason to sell.
“It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.” - Warren Buffett
By HDL Doc
