Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[stockaxe]

It isn't obvious to me that HGEN is a homerun. It is some short-term business, but without EUA it may prove to be a one-time boost to sales and the company will need to backfill that portion of backlog. I honestly don't know. I do think it is weird HGEN hasn't said anything re: EUA submission and/or approval given the data came out a month ago.

But long-run, there are lots of puts and takes here. Don't pin hopes on any one customer...that's the point of the company's diversification strategy. There are probably a lot of customers we don't know about too that are poised to grow significantly, and other things in the deal pipeline that could add significantly to revenues. The company isn't dumb enough to pin all its hopes on one customer's projections, especially before approval. That to me says they are confident in the broader picture...because they wouldn't be spending money on expansion simply hoping any one customer works.

Said differently, don't be biased by news flow either way. Just because we know about ADCT, HALO, HGEN, etc. doesn't mean that is even a significant piece of the overall future...there's probably a lot more we don't know.