Apple Inc (AAPL)

[yofal]

Roni: makes me feel better about the extra shares...

...I bought today.

But it'll pass.

I think he's right about sluggish HD adoption, and the dizzying array of delivery options that will surely bewilder consumers and retailers alike. DVD adoption rates were so rapid and deep because they were fed by a standing glut of content that never made it to tape, because the content owners were literally still trying to pull in revenues from broadcast. The reluctance many express for buying a song in "yet another format" will likely scale more profoundly when the relative costs of music recordings vs motion pictures are compared.

So with no other clear competitor in the field of selling digital content, I think the consumer is bound to stay with what they know works, regardless of huge coming changes in the rapidity with which we can receive it. They'll go with what they understand - and who they ultimately trust to continue to explain it to them in a sensible fashion. The added dilution of new forms of broadcast (the Youtubes, et al) just make for a noisier, angrier, more advert-laden economy that many may not want to participate in.