Franklin, Andrews, Kramer & Edelstein

[scion]

Towards food supply chain resilience to environmental shocks

Published: 21 December 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-020-00196-3

Abstract

Environmental variability and shock events can be propagated or attenuated along food supply chains by various economic, political and infrastructural factors. Understanding these processes is central to reducing risks associated with periodic food shortages, price spikes and reductions in food quality. Here we perform a scoping review of the literature to examine entry points for environmental variability along the food supply chain, the evidence of propagation or attenuation of this variability, and the food items and types of shock that have been studied. We find that research on food supply shocks has primarily focused on maize, rice and wheat, on agricultural production and on extreme rainfall and temperatures—indicating the need to expand research into the full food basket, diverse sources of environmental variability and the links connecting food production to consumption and nutrition. Insights from this new knowledge can inform key responses—at the level of an individual (for example, substituting foods), a company (for example, switching sources) or a government (for example, strategic reserves)—for coping with disruptions.

Main

Food production, storage, processing, distribution, retail and consumption are all exposed to wide-ranging forms of environmental change, including slow-moving changes in average conditions (for example, climate, nutrient and water cycling), smaller-magnitude variations around those means and larger, anomalous disruptions1,2. Environmental variability and disruptions are manifested not only as floods, droughts and extreme heat (that is, climate variability) but also as natural hazards, pests, disease, algal blooms, coral bleaching and aflatoxins3,4,5.

Environmental variability includes fluctuations within the historical range but increasingly consists of extreme—and at times unprecedented—events driven by climate change and other forms of human-environmental change. While expected changes in climatic and environmental conditions over the coming decades will certainly have important implications for future food security, nutrition, and human and planetary health1,2,4,6,7, environmental variability and extreme events are already leading to harvest losses and distribution disruptions each year8. In many cases, these short-term impacts (that is, those occurring within the span of a production/growing season) have been shown to be stronger than those caused by slow-moving changes in climate and the environment7. Such developments point to a growing need to protect the stability of not only food production but also other steps in food supply chains in the face of rising environmental variability and risk9.

Environmental variability can affect food supply chains at local to global scales. In regions with limited global market access and where food production and consumption are tightly coupled (that is, short supply chains common in subsistence-based food systems), environmental variability can more readily translate into local shortages of specific foods10, creating food insecurity depending on available substitutes, the impacts on livelihoods11, and how household diets and nutrient intake are modified12. Increasingly, the impacts of environmental variability are not limited to local producers but spread through longer supply chains. A prominent example was seen in 2008, when a drought in key grain-producing regions, combined with rising biofuel demand, high oil prices, decreasing grain stocks and the depreciation of the US dollar, led to a spike in global grain prices13. That set off a series of rice export bans, furthering shortages and ultimately driving more than 130 million people into poverty and an additional 75 million people into malnourishment13. Although only partially an environmental shock, this global-scale disruption illuminated the potential for shocks to cascade through the food trade network and to impact geographically distant places and people.

As food supply chains grow increasingly globalized, it is important to understand the potential novel risks of how environmental variability is propagated or attenuated within food systems. Ongoing globalization and the rise of multinational food corporations have enhanced the efficiency and complexity with which producers and consumers are linked. Research is only beginning to understand how these dynamics influence the propagation of the effects of environmental variability through global and local food supply chains, how large-scale events (for example, blockades, recessions and pandemics)14,15,16 may compound these effects, and what they ultimately mean for the stability and affordability of nutritious diets. Identifying the key processes and actors in food supply chains—and understanding their interactions with, and exposure to, environmental variability and the economy—is central to reducing food and nutrition security risks associated with periodic food shortages and to improving resilience within food systems.

Here we perform a scoping review (Extended data Fig. 1) to synthesize existing knowledge on the impacts of environmental variability on food supply chains and the transfer of such impacts along local and global food supply chains. We first highlight the entry points for environmental variability along each step in the supply chain, drawing on examples from the scoping review. Then, we present the quantitative review results related to which food items, supply chain steps and types of environmental variability have been the focus of research to date. Finally, we summarize the qualitative review results on the response option space for actors along the supply chain.

On the basis of our findings, we contend that a new wave of food systems research focused on the full food basket, diverse forms of environmental variability and local-to-global interactions across the supply chain is required to understand the diverse impacts of environmental variability on the spectrum of food systems. This new knowledge can inform a range of policy options and business decisions across the supply chain that provide flexibility in responding to variability in food supplies and that enhance the resilience and adaptability of food systems to known and novel shocks.

Results

Entry points for environmental variability

Environmental variability can affect the quantity, quality and timing of food as it travels through the supply chain (Fig. 1). Most entry points for environmental variability to impact food supply chains occur at production. Exposure to variability and shocks is particularly pronounced for rainfed agriculture and smallholders (that is, households with <5?ha), who account for the majority of the world’s food production (57% (ref.?17) and 55% (ref.?18), respectively) and rely largely on locally available natural resources. A large body of literature documents the impacts of floods, droughts, natural disasters and other extreme events on food production19,20,21. In some instances (for example, disease and pests), individual food items may be impacted, while other phenomena (for example, large-scale drought and algal blooms) may induce declines across entire portions or regions of the food production basket. Environmental variability also presents challenges related to the quality and safety of food items, possibly leading to changes in the nutrient content of some species as well as increased food safety risks. Increasing variations in rainfall have been linked to greater variability in the protein content of wheat22 while higher temperatures have been associated with changes in the fatty acid content of some fish4,23 and declining milk quality in dairy cows24. Temperature, humidity and precipitation variability, along with increased pests, are associated with increased aflatoxin levels during production, while algal blooms can produce toxins that enhance the risk of shellfish poisoning25,26. Environmental variability also affects the transmission of animal diseases (which can necessitate mass animal culling or fishery closures), foodborne illness and zoonosis (that is, animal-to-human transmission).
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-020-00196-3