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Re: damAcon1 post# 10895

Thursday, 04/29/2021 9:30:33 PM

Thursday, April 29, 2021 9:30:33 PM

Post# of 21300
Steven, So felt wrong for being rude earlier, I appreciate your viewpoint because it helps keep me grounded...as opposed to overly bullish...even though it is very easy to be when you have been invested in this company for years and finally are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. Promises finally become proof...proof through revenue. Anyway, I decided that I would make it up to you by running some numbers (and talk in averages). I went out to the Department of Colorado's website and located the number of recreational (only) retailers (592) and then found the average recreational retail sales over the last 14 months ($145,437,971). This breaks down to an average monthly sales, per retailer, of $245,520. Then I decided to run similar numbers based on the estimates provided in today's report. What made it not overly complicated was they closed the final 5 Starbuds on March 3...essentially a full month of information for the new 5 locations:
$19,300,000 / 41 (12*3+5) = $470,732
$26,800,000 / 51 (17*3) = $525,490
Obviously these are averages, but SHWZ is pulling over $525,000 per location...or about $17,500 per location per day (if you take the $525K and less out the $17.5K per day you get close enough to the $470K reported above). This is insane! They are pulling approximately double the Colorado retail average. If nothing changes from here on out...and they can maintain...we are taking an annual revenue of $107.2M. This is when they were giving guidance between $95M-$105M (not the $115M-$120M in the recent interview). Here is the breakdown:
$95M Annual Estimate -- $465,686/month
$105M Annual Estimate -- $514,705/month
Average Annual Estimate -- $490,196/month
Joe Gnomes Breakdown -- $491,950/month -- $100.4M annually
That being said, I feel this information was released early in an attempt to get the SP up so they can potentially offer/close another acquisition between now and when they (officially) report. I also fully agree that law changes will not be coming. I think when SAFE passed the House, and Schumer was quick to muddy the water with his concept of federal legalization, this was just a stall tactic to get people to believe something better is to come...and so SAFE doesnt need to be voted on in the Senate.
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