Microvision Inc (MVIS)

[gnillish_00]

Don't have to beat them, just not give in to them. At some point fundamentals will catch up to speculation, or a M&A deal will get done.

M&A deal realistically looks like it would come in between $5.5 and about $8b ($35-52/share). Target share price over the next few year as a going concern is mid-$20's based on information we have.

To me that says that anything below $12 is a strong buy with a 100%+ upside over the next couple years, and we've seen that backed up by institutional buying and strong support between the $10.20 and $11 range. Once you get to the mid-$20's you've depleted most of your upside on the low end of the range. Still worth holding, but harder to justify adding to your position. As you approach $30 you are above the value projections for going concern over the next few years, so it comes down to how confident you are in a M&A deal getting done and what you think that timeline looks like. This is where you need to factor in opportunity and time costs to determine if you should hold or sell (or buy if a deal is looking likely and imminent).