Market Direction and Stock Trends

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S&P 500 Index (SPX) - Turning Back UP »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 24, 2021

This market continues to make new historical highs. The last critical cyclical low was Mon. Mar. 23, 2020, which was 284 trading sessions ago. The S&P 500 Cash Index has been in an uptrend for the past 3 days closing above the previous session's high. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 21 days.

Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 1.70% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 421943, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Moreover, a lower opening and a penetration of today's low of 413878 with a closing beneath this level would suggest today's high will stand temporarily.

Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 421016 may have reached a high. However, keep in mind that any deline from here must be more than just 2 to 3 sessions We see strategic overhead resistance standing at 418716 which means we have not broken out in a runaway market to the upside. A lower opening below 418017 will warn that we may have aa temporary high for this moment. Our Stochastics are also turning upward.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2021. Clearly, we have elected three Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 415047 and overhead resistance forming above at 418081. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 19th at 419417, which was up 30 weeks from the low made back during the week of September 21st. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 419417 to 411838. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 419417. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 417675 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2018 while the last high formed on 2020. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

A closing above last year's high of 376020 will warn of perhaps new highs into next year. A closing below that number would warn that this year could be just a temporary high.

Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 12 months since the low established back in March 2020.

Critical support still underlies this market at 327960 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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