Market Direction and Stock Trends

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:::: Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) - Pressing Higher »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 24, 2021

Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 3404349 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's settlement of 3060648. At present, this market has been rising for 5 months going into April suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 3425675 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 3054753. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 3325900.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in Dow Jones Industrials, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Mon. Mar. 14, 2022. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The Dow Jones Industrials has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2021. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Dow Jones Industrials, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 3403418 and overhead resistance forming above at 3405816. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 12th at 3425675, which was up 24 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 26th. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 1.663% in a stark panic type decline.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of April 12th has exceeded the previous high of 3322778 made back during the week of March 15th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 2614377 made the week of October 26th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2018 while the last high formed on 2020. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

A closing above last year's high of 3063747 will warn of perhaps new highs into next year. A closing below that number would warn that this year could be just a temporary high.

Interestingly, the Dow Jones Industrials has been in a bullish phase for the past 12 months since the low established back in March 2020.

Critical support still underlies this market at 2959910 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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