In terms of the sector thus far in 2021, I felt the rally earlier this year was a bit premature and something that was completely unprecedented — a sector rally with a few days of mania on mere talk of something happening
All prior cannabis manias have been based on actual events
In 2016, we saw a very similar situation with a strong rally early in the year, and then the sector fell apart, and then the manic event catalyst got closer and we had a full fledged multi-month cannabis mania before the actual event — California, Massachusetts, Nevada and Maine voting to legalize Rec MJ, 4 additional states voting to legalize Med MJ, and Clinton presumedly winning the election with her stated intention to Legalize MJ by moving it to Schedule II
In 2014, the mania was also based on an actual event — Colorado launching sales of Rec MJ
Canada’s mania in Nov/Dec 2017 was also based on an actual event — Constellation Brands taking a 10% stake in Canopy Growth)
The 1-2 week mania infamously ended by Sessions’ rescission of the Cole Memo in late Dec 2017/early Jan 2018 in America was also based on an actual event — California launching sales of Rec MJ
We all know what the manic catalysts are in 2021:
Legalization of Cannabis Banking
Legalization of CBD Products (Hemp-derived)
Legalization of MJ
It’s going to be Chuck’s show from here
Will he get it done for us in 2021?
As I’ve stated repeatedly, I think Cannabis (MJ & Hemp/CBD) Banking — The 2021 SAFE Banking Act — is the most likely catalyst of them all
I also believe that CBD Legalization could wind up being attached to The 2021 SAFE Banking Act, but we will need to see that bill filed in the Senate before that can happen
Will Mitch file that bill?
Will Rand Paul?
MJ remains illegal in Kentucky, so Hemp & CBD is the entire game there
That’s also the capital of the American Hemp industry
So those are the 2 guys most likely to push hard for that to happen, but there are other hemp-loving Senators in both parties, so it’s a real bipartisan issue
ValidCare hasn’t published their results in a medical journal yet, but they have already publicly stated that there are zero issues with CBD and the liver — literally none
So the liver safety question is finally resolved and politicians no longer have that question hanging over their heads
If The SAFE Banking Act is a 70/30 proposition, I think CBD Legalization is a 60/40 proposition
In terms of MJ Legalization, it may still be too early, but that will depend on the exact content of Chuck’s Bill
If it doesn’t mandate that states legalize and it’s just a descheduling and state-legalization permissions bill like The STATES Act, then it has a better chance of passing in 2021 than something like The MORE Act
I don’t think The MORE Act will pass this Senate in 2021 unless they can get rid of the filibuster
Something like The MORE Act seems more like a 2022 event to me
But The STATES Act would be a 50/50 proposition in 2021 if there is strong bipartisan support in the Senate for The 2021 SAFE Banking Act
The next few months are going to tell the story here
Sleek
