LifeMD Inc (LFMD)

[Happy Investor]

Thanks for posting. This is a very detailed and complete analysis. After reading it twice I concluded that yes, the company has been conservative in its revenue estimates and had given guidance based on existing lines, and BTIG has also been conservative (as one would expect of a credible firm). Growth from existing biz will be higher than viewed and we will know early this week. Based on the company's marketing success, new product and new line launches will add significantly to the growth rate over 2021 and beyond. The company is a quality operator and takes great pains to control its operations and deliver quality at every point of contact. Hence the LifeMD concierge program will have traction and will grow nicely as a result of patient satisfaction. A 20 or 30 something can buy a cheap catastrophic policy and supplement it with LifeMD for $1200 per year and have very reasonable health risk coverage for less than $3000 vs conventional coverage of $9000. Seems like a no brainer.
Another factor is Cost of new patients. Ad cost were exceptionally high in Q4 due to the presidential election. Costs will be in line now AND the exceptional level of subscription relationships will mean a decline in the average marketing cost per shipment. Hence when Q1 comes out, expenses will look much more moderate.
Predicting the stock price is difficult due to the short situation. Will they continue to try to suppress? Will they scramble to cover in the face of high investor demand for a cheap stock? Will more institutions buy a bargain? But the trend will be up. This week's revenue announcement could be pivotal. If revenue growth accelerated from Q4 we may be off to the races.