PCT Ltd (PCTL)

[NewJerichoMan]

Double-down / buy-in point analysis.

Mostly thinking out loud here. It'll be a long weekend of reflection.

97% here are to some degree underwater here. What's a decent double-down point. Those that are on the sidelines, what's a good buy-in point?

Keeping it simple I'm just going to use Sales Multipliers to determine value. Trailing- and Forward 12-month multipliers range from 2 to 10x sales for most stocks. The faster the growth, the stronger the share structure, the higher the multiple.

Current market cap is $12.5M but fully diluted, the market cap is over $22M. They told us twice those 447M warrants were cancelled. They weren't. The share structure is as big of fright show as it has ever been.

TTM Sales (trailing 12 months) = $2.5M.
FTM Sales (forward 12 months) = I'm calling it $5M.

Guidance is $10M but that's probably bull$hit. The current business model is for hospitals and CoVid. So, $2.5M in 2020 consisted of revenues from those two sources. We know CoVid is going to decrease in 2021 <knocks on wood>. So if they don't hit on anything (O&G, Agriculture, etc.), $2.5M probably won't be attainable again. $5M is an aggressive projection.

For my money, the buy-in point is $10M imputed market cap, fully diluted. Got to account for that fright share structure. That's a per share price of $0.007373. Sub-penny. Still a 50% drop from today's closing price.

We all have different risk profiles and opinions on where the company is going. That's my projection. Below is a chart for a starting point if one is considering the double-down or buy-in based on the imputed market capitalization (fully diluted).