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S&P500 on Track for 4375?

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DiscoverGold Member Level  Thursday, 04/08/21 08:54:47 PM
Re: None
Post # of 39553 
S&P500 on Track for 4375?
By: Dr. Arnout Ter Schure | April 8, 2021

• Early March, see here, I found “my Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count points to a top [for the S&P500 (SPX)] around SPX4085-4185 to complete (red) intermediate wave-iii.”

Last week I found “The S&P500 is still in a 100% Bullish uptrend … and a move below the early-March low (SPX3725) is needed to confirm a more pronounced correction down to SPX3250-3500. Until then, the index can still try to move higher to SPX4065-4185…”

Fast forward, and the S&P500 (SPX) is now trading at SPX4095. Target zone reached. So was that it? Using the (EWP) see figure 1 below, I think there’s still more upside in store first before the subsequent more significant multi-week correction unfolds.

The S&P500 can reach SPX4375 assuming standard Fibonacci-based wave extensions.

In this update, I want to focus on what is shown inside the larger green square. I’ve drawn in the typical 3rd, 4th, and 5th wave targets for a standard, Fibonacci-based impulse pattern that started from the early-March low (red wave-iv). Green (minor) waves 1 and 2 have been completed, and now wave-3 is underway, which should ideally target between SPX4210-4275. Then I expect a wave-4 down to around current levels (SPX4110+/-10) before a last 5th wave (green minor-5) rallies price to SPX4375. This EWP path forward is based on the assumption the index will follow a textbook EWP impulse pattern higher. There is nothing to tell me it will not, but it can, of course, always deviate. To be determined. But for now, this is all I can go by.

Thus, as long as the index stays above the grey (minute) wave-i high at SPX3978 on any short-term pullback, while on its way to ideally SPX4210-4275, then the in Figure 1 shown EWP path (grey arrows) should unfold, and the index will reach higher than I initially anticipated March 11th.

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Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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