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Tuesday, 04/06/2021 9:27:43 PM

Tuesday, April 06, 2021 9:27:43 PM

Post# of 233024
Timing of LL approval - does it really matter (in your investment thesis) if LL is approved this month or in the second half of this year? The important thing is that the drug will save a number of lives when others have failed. Isn’t that more important than the exact timing?

Timing doesn’t work the way you expect with small biotechs, unfortunately. That’s the nature of the investment. You have to take a long term perspective. Big pharma have 1000 X more resources and experience, so they do hold the advantage here. However, they are risk averse and therefore are often very conservative with their R&D. As a consequence, major breakthroughs are typically made by small biotechs. This is where we have a tremendous advantage over big pharma. Take it for what it’s worth.

The harsh reality is that the market for COVID therapeutics will remain strong for decades. Consider anti-vaxxer, and other population that may not be eligible for vaccine for one reason or another. To give you some perspective, we still have around 50k deaths from flu every yr in the US.
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