Tornado Alley (PROG)

[blackhawks]

574,000 More U.S. Deaths Than Normal Since Covid-19 Struck

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/14/us/covid-19-death-toll.html

By Josh Katz, Denise Lu and Margot Sanger-KatzUpdated March 24, 2021

Since March 2020, about 574,000 more Americans have died than would have in a normal year, a sign of the broad devastation wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.

An analysis of mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows how the pandemic is bringing with it unusual patterns of death, even higher than the official totals of deaths that have been directly linked to the virus.

Deaths nationwide were 21 percent higher than normal from March 15, 2020, to Feb. 20, 2021. Our numbers may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated.

Our analysis examines deaths from all causes — not just confirmed cases of coronavirus — beginning when the virus took hold in the United States last spring. That allows comparisons that do not depend on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting, and includes deaths related to disruptions caused by the pandemic as well as the virus itself. Epidemiologists refer to fatalities in the gap between the observed and normal numbers of deaths as “excess deaths.”

Public health researchers use such methods to measure the impact of catastrophic events when official measures of mortality are flawed.

As Covid-19 cases have spread across the country, the geographic patterns of abnormal mortality statistics have followed. Excess deaths have peaked three times, so far, as have deaths from Covid-19.

There are now excess deaths in nearly every state, with surges in states like Arizona, California, Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia fueling record death tolls in recent weeks.


Weekly deaths above and below normal since March 15, 2020






United States

March 15 – Feb. 20


Reported Covid-19 deaths

497,343


Total excess deaths

574,300


Total above normal

21%




Alabama

March 15 – Feb. 27


9,930


12,900


25%




Alaska

March 15 – Jan. 30


253


500


13%




Arizona

March 15 – March 6


16,323


19,600


32%




Arkansas

March 15 – March 6


5,297


6,800


21%




California

March 15 – Feb. 27


51,974


69,800


27%




Colorado

March 15 – March 6


6,073


7,500


19%




Connecticut

March 15 – Feb. 6


7,214


8,000


28%




Delaware

March 15 – Feb. 6


1,202


1,600


20%




Florida

March 15 – March 6


31,616


35,900


17%




Georgia

March 15 – Feb. 27


16,755


21,200


25%




Hawaii

March 15 – Feb. 27


436


60


1%




Idaho

March 15 – Feb. 20


1,829


1,900


14%




Illinois

March 15 – Feb. 27


22,710


24,000


23%




Indiana

March 15 – Jan. 30


9,967


11,500


20%




Iowa

March 15 – Feb. 20


5,336


5,000


17%




Kansas

March 15 – Feb. 27


4,734


5,100


20%




Kentucky

March 15 – Feb. 20


4,585


7,500


16%




Louisiana

March 15 – Feb. 20


9,439


11,100


25%




Maine

March 15 – March 6


704


800


6%




Maryland

March 15 – March 6


7,941


10,200


20%




Massachusetts

March 15 – Feb. 27


16,067


10,200


18%




Michigan

March 15 – Feb. 20


16,332


19,500


21%




Minnesota

March 15 – Feb. 27


6,543


6,100


14%




Mississippi

March 15 – Feb. 27


6,669


9,000


29%




Missouri

March 15 – Feb. 20


8,151


11,900


19%




Montana

March 15 – Feb. 27


1,357


1,700


17%




Nebraska

March 15 – Feb. 20


2,169


2,700


17%




Nevada

March 15 – Feb. 27


4,957


5,800


22%




New Hampshire

March 15 – Feb. 27


1,170


1,100


9%




New Jersey

March 15 – March 6


23,555


23,500


32%




New Mexico

March 15 – Feb. 13


3,518


4,300


25%




New York (excluding N.Y.C.)

March 15 – March 13


18,195


24,100


24%




New York City

March 15 – March 13


30,173


31,500


58%




North Carolina

March 15 – Sept. 26


3,458


6,300


12%




North Dakota

March 15 – Feb. 6


1,453


1,400


21%




Ohio

March 15 – Feb. 27


17,239


22,400


19%




Oklahoma

March 15 – Feb. 20


4,155


7,900


21%




Oregon

March 15 – Feb. 20


2,158


3,300


10%




Pennsylvania

March 15 – Feb. 20


23,615


25,300


20%




Puerto Rico

March 15 – Dec. 19


1,342


1,700


8%




Rhode Island

March 15 – Feb. 13


2,290


2,000


21%




South Carolina

March 15 – March 6


8,719


12,000


24%




South Dakota

March 15 – Feb. 13


1,837


1,800


24%




Tennessee

March 15 – Feb. 27


11,299


14,200


19%




Texas

March 15 – Feb. 27


43,772


57,800


29%




Utah

March 15 – March 6


1,975


2,900


15%




Vermont

March 15 – March 13


214


600


12%




Virginia

March 15 – March 6


9,518


12,200


18%




Washington State

March 15 – Feb. 20


4,846


5,000


9%




Washington, D.C.

March 15 – Feb. 20


994


1,400


24%




West Virginia

March 15 – Jan. 16


1,761


2,800


15%




Wisconsin

March 15 – Feb. 27


7,019


8,200


16%




Wyoming

March 15 – Feb. 20


662


900


22%


Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind in reporting. These estimates from the C.D.C. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years. It will take several months before all these numbers are finalized.

During the period of our analysis, estimated excess deaths were 15 percent higher than the official coronavirus fatality count. If this pattern held through March 24, the total death toll would be about 628,000.

For comparison, around 600,000 Americans die from cancer in a normal year. The number of unusual deaths for this period is also higher than the typical number of annual deaths from Alzheimers, stroke or diabetes.

Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died. Most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself. But it is also possible that deaths from other causes have risen too, as hospitals in some hot spots have become overwhelmed and people have been scared to seek care for ailments that are typically survivable. Some causes of death may be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.

Drug deaths also rose steeply in the first half of 2020, according to preliminary C.D.C. mortality data that runs through June of last year, a trend that began before the coronavirus pandemic arrived.