Sunday, March 28, 2021 10:00:01 AM
Simply Wall St
Sat, March 27, 2021, 3:11 AM
Arko Corp. (NASDAQ:ARKO) missed earnings with its latest annual results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Unfortunately, Arko delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of US$3.3b were 20% below expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.14 missed estimates by 29%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the three analysts covering Arko are now predicting revenues of US$6.57b in 2021. If met, this would reflect a huge 101% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Arko is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.27 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$6.36b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.31 in 2021. While next year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a substantial drop in EPS expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view of these results.
The analysts also cut Arko's price target 5.1% to US$12.33, implying that lower forecast earnings are expected to have a more negative impact than can be offset by the increase in sales. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Arko analyst has a price target of US$13.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$12.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Arko's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 101% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2021 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 16% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Arko
to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Arko. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Arko. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-miss-arko-corp-missed-071130535.html
Recent ARKO News
- ARKO Corp. Reports First Quarter 2024 Results • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/07/2024 08:01:00 PM
- ARKO to Report First Quarter 2024 Financial Results on May 7, 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/25/2024 08:05:00 PM
- ARKO Corp. Subsidiary to Open New Handy Mart Store in Newport, North Carolina • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/16/2024 11:00:00 AM
- ARKO Corp. Subsidiary GPM Investments Kicks Off Months of Pizza Celebration with its $4.99 Pizza Program • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/09/2024 11:00:00 AM
- ARKO Corp. Negotiates Enhanced Value for Stockholders in Final Payment for TEG Acquisition • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/28/2024 11:00:00 AM
- ARKO Corp. Subsidiary GPM Investments Ramps Up Hiring Initiative to Strengthen Workforce and Foster Growth – Seeking to Hire 1,500 Employees • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/20/2024 09:00:00 PM
- ARKO Corp. Subsidiary to Open New Fast Market Store in Gilbert, Arizona • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/18/2024 09:00:00 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/08/2024 10:00:16 PM
- Form 424B7 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(7)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/08/2024 09:42:32 PM
- Form S-3ASR - Automatic shelf registration statement of securities of well-known seasoned issuers • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/08/2024 09:19:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/06/2024 08:19:13 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/06/2024 08:18:01 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/06/2024 08:16:37 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/02/2024 12:23:45 AM
- Form SC 13D/A - General statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/01/2024 10:43:57 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/01/2024 09:24:07 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/01/2024 09:22:21 PM
- ARKO Corp. Announces Participation in Raymond James 45th Annual Institutional Investors Conference • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/29/2024 09:44:44 PM
- Form 10-K - Annual report [Section 13 and 15(d), not S-K Item 405] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/27/2024 10:20:47 PM
- ARKO Corp. Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Results • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/27/2024 10:00:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/27/2024 01:30:10 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/27/2024 01:30:09 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/27/2024 01:30:06 PM
- ARKO to Report Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results on February 27, 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/13/2024 12:00:00 PM
- ARKO Corp Launches Highly Relevant, Delicious $4.99 Pizza Program • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/31/2024 11:00:00 AM
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