Bright Cannabis Outlook Leads to Bigger Estimates for 2022 The fundamentals of the cannabis industry continue to improve.
Jan 25, 2021 Real Money - The Street by Deborah Borchardt
Stocks quotes in this article: JUSHF, TLLTF, CNTMF, SLGWF, TCNNF, INDXF, FLOOF
There are many reasons why the cannabis industry is looking brighter and as analysts sharpen their pencils, investors can begin to feel better about their investments.
The fundamentals of the cannabis industry continue to improve, leading to new estimates for 2022. Demand is strong in mature markets and expanding in nascent states. In addition to those markets, states such as Arizona have just begun selling legal adult-use cannabis, while New Jersey and New York take steps to create adult-use programs within 2021.
Canaccord Genuity has introduced 2022 estimates for the cannabis companies it covers. The analysts cite an improving regulatory backdrop at the federal level as Democrats have taken a majority position. They also point to cannabis being deemed an essential service during the pandemic, which has strengthened demand.
"The Canaccord Genuity U.S. Cannabis Index is up 121% vs. the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index, which is up 51.6% over the year," wrote the analyst Bobby Burleson. "We nevertheless see room for further appreciation for stock prices, driven in part by generally improving execution to growth plans and potential for upside revisions in certain cases." He even said he believes multiples have room to expand.
All of these stocks, below, have a "Speculative Buy" rating.
Jushi Holdings Burleson wrote, "While our 2022 estimates rank Jushi Holdings (JUSHF) within the top tier of MSO's on the EV/EBITDA basis (13.0x vs. 13.3x average) we believe there is headroom for the stock to appreciate." He cites the company's focus on limited license markets and believes that with the recent cash infusion, the company is poised to make acquisitions. "We expect cash flow generation and a solid net cash position along with outsized growth and high potential for upside, should continue to drive healthy stock performance and premium multiples for Jushi," said the analyst. His revenue estimate for 2022 is $350 million and he has an $8 price target.
The stock was recently trading at around $7.12.
Tilt Holdings Burleson lowered his 2021 estimates for Tilt (TLLTF) , but that doesn't mean he thinks less of the company. He noted the current year's decline is due to its sale of the software company Blackbird, which was actually a loss leader for the company.
The analyst thinks the company's struggles are behind it and that it is positioned for profitable growth. "We are also taking a conservative view on vape hardware demand and plant touching assets this year, although both segments are still modeled to deliver health growth," he wrote. His revenue estimate for 2022 is C$260 million ($204 million) and his price target is C$1.00 ($0.79).
The stock was recently trading at around 45 cents.
Cansortium Burleson likes Cansortium's (CNTMF) exposure to the Florida market with its 24 stores. "For 2022, we look for top line growth to be driven by a full year of output from broadened cultivation and retail footprint, including Michigan wholesale and expanded Pennsylvania retail," said the analyst. The company also has a first mover advantage in Texas, which has an extremely limited medical market.
His revenue estimate for 2022 is C$140 million ($109 million) and his price target is C$1.20 ($0.94), which was increased from C$0.70.
Slang Worldwide "We see Slang (SLGWF) benefiting from recent expansion initiatives and improvements for demand in its core markets," said Burleson. He thinks partnerships should continue to offer a low cost means for market expansion like the company's partnership with Trulieve (TCNNF) for Massachusetts.
His revenue estimate for 2022 is for C$57.7 million ($45 million) and his price target is C$0.55 ($0.43).
Indus Holdings "On the heels of an equity raise, the company's recently announced intention to build a new cultivation facility (online by 1H2022) has the potential to more than double the company's annual flower capacity, while subject to a much lower tax burden," wrote Burleson about Indus Holdings (INDXF) . His new estimates actually exclude the impact from the new facility because the terms haven't been completely ironed out.
His price target is C$2.75 ($2.16) and his revenue estimate for 2022 is C$111 million ($87 million).
The stock was recently trading at around $1.20.
Flower One Burleson likes the opening of a Cookies dispensary (along with other notable stores) in Las Vegas for Flower One (FLOOF) and believes this will drive an uptick in weekly revenue. However, he was also lowering estimates for 2021 based on the effects of the pandemic on the Vegas market.
He has a revenue estimate for 2022 of C$117 million ($91 million) and a price target of C$0.50 ($0.39).
The stock was recently trading at around $0.19.
Final Thoughts New legislation in the U.S. is already being proposed under the new Biden administration. Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL) filed a proposal last week, which Marijuana Moment described as being "Identical to a measure he sponsored last session. It would simply move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA)."
Rescheduling is backed by President Biden, even though this isn't exactly what activists want. However, it would undoubtedly improve the way cannabis companies operate. They would probably become more profitable since they would be able to claim 280e business expenses, which they can't do with cannabis as a schedule 1 drug. It would also remove some restrictions that federal agencies face when working with cannabis.
