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Re: meirluc post# 36183

Sunday, 03/14/2021 6:13:28 PM

Sunday, March 14, 2021 6:13:28 PM

Post# of 43784
The only plausible case I can make is the initial CRO screw up leading to about a 2 year delay, and that population being accidentally high survivability, all of them.

This could explain why rate of events corrected upon new mass enrollment.

The data could look POSITIVE right now out here, but be FALSE POSITIVE upon review.

For whatever reason, I FEEL like that is more likely than that we have escaped beyond 9% in SOC standard survival expectations due to our relatively small sample size of 800 compared to SEER data at 200,000+

Meanwhile, it is more likely than either of those two options that something dramatically effective is taking place.

We only know what we know.

If it has not been clear recently, I am always very pessimistic until forced to be positive on this. And I am forced to be positive. None of the negative options seem much plausible.

The best math and figuring of 5-6 people who play with hard data have all concluded that there is a signal of effectiveness. Most seem to agree is it as per Fosco's suggestion.

I think it will still be stunning if we make 11.25% and that's about as low as I can FORCE the data to be biased pessimistically.

( Unless something really weird has taken place nobody could imagine )





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