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Saturday, 03/13/2021 9:21:23 AM

Saturday, March 13, 2021 9:21:23 AM

Post# of 43093
This is my first post on this site. I read about a related post on on the ASX forum chat for EEENF, and it was the best written most objective and intelligent post I had ever read. It gave me shivers, literally. And, it was posted on 03/07/2021 by the user "Arktic1970". If this doesn't give you comfort in what you're investing in, I don't know what else would. GLTY all.

"As noted by other posters, weather has been extremely cold on North Slope. Warming up recently.

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/prudhoe-bay/historic

When temperatures are -40F or lower near Umiat, operations essentially freeze in place on the NS. At those temperatures, steel becomes too brittle, hydraulic hoses and fluids are vulnerable, mud is hard to work with, and more. If you throw a cup of hot water in the air, it vaporizes immediately. Spit crackles when it hits the air. If you've not experienced 40 below, it's hard to explain just how cold it really is. Throw in a little wind and then the windchill feels like taking a bath in liquid nitrogen.

Now that temperature has risen to more reasonable levels (-13F), my guess is that the well will spud very soon - Monday perhaps. Once it spuds, it will probably only take a couple of weeks to reach the target (assuming no glitches). Of course, we won't get a PR at that time but history suggests that it is hard to keep well data "tight" once the mud from the target zone starts circulating to surface. I'm going to watch the ticker tape about two to three weeks after spud for "hints".

Regarding comments about "bitumen", bear in mind the geology in the Nanushuk (Project Peregrine) is very different than the Icewine geology. If oil is discovered, it will be very light, high value crude. There could be gas in the target zone, for which there currently is no market on the NS. There could be water in the reservoir rock. But drilling into bitumen is about as unlikely as a plucked eagle being able to fly. Any exploratory well is inherently risky. But the upside along the Willow cliniform (see the company's presentation materials) is very substantial. Project Peregrine targets are currently 1.6B barrels. Obviously, there could be no reserves. There could also be much more than 1.6B barrels recoverable.

Although each geological variable (e.g., permeability, porosity, oil in place, etc.) can be risked and an overall risk level can be statistically calculated, at the end of the day, the outcome of the Merlin #1 well is binary (commerical discovery or not).

Keep in mind that farm-in partners who are very sophisticated in the oil patch have put a lot of money into the Merlin #1 well. They did not do so mindlessly. That doesn't guarantee success. But it does guarantee that some very sophisticated modeling was used before capital was deployed for drilling.

We're in the right place for a world class discovery. I have my money where my mouth is. Very long. Even if the well is not a commercial discovery, there's still a lot of upside potential in the 350+ square miles of Project Peregrine. Likewise, 88E is well positioned near Point Thompson far to the east on the NS. In short, this is not a GTZ company even if the Merlin #1 is dry. And if the Merlin #1 is a commercial success, the immediate upside potential for the PPS is staggering.

My bet has been placed. Waiting for the dealer to flip the last card... the one that counts in the exploration game
".