I can’t say, I‘m the least bit surprised about today. This morning, it already looked like the market was completely unimpressed, and the stock fell, perhaps because the chart was already suggesting a re-test of the previous turning point. There‘s method to what we’re seeing here. The supercentenarian paper didn’t cut it either, nor did the news about the BAT study. What all of these events have in common, is that they don’t represent a tangible path to profitability, especially no timeframe. As I speculated in one of my previous posts, many factors might coincide here, and continue to keep the stock down. I‘d say, it‘s mostly the early-stage work, combined with funding needs, plus possibly a technology that is too mind-blowing to be understood, much less believed. On the other hand, we‘ve seen, how far meaningless events can take us, if there‘s only sufficient momentum.
The silver lining to this could be that the chart is far from uneventful, if you look past the day-to-day disappointments. Nothing suggests that what happened in October, was a common gap, or it probably would have been closed, months ago. Instead, the floor moved up to 1.41, where the stock stabilized in November.
I also think, there is a substantial possibility that the market could suddenly start playing this game in the opposite direction. Instead of constantly missing the prospects, and making a case like „90% of all drugs don’t make it past phase I“, the market could just as easily start pricing the stock, like there is no limit to their potential. This process might have already begun, only it‘s happening in slow motion. Once people take for granted that no run in AgeX will ever last, they might suddenly realize that they completely missed that it‘s already changed.
In the absence of hard facts on the balance sheet, the market might continue to knock us around. But substantial income might have already been placed in a far more distant future than it could turn out to be.
I still consider this level interesting. The possibility of being outperformed in the near-term, is ubiquitous. Perhaps the greatest challenge is the required patience. If the first question asked, is how many days it will take, to triple, the broad public might continue to ignore the AgeX stock. But this also means that many of them will end up chasing, when there finally is a lift-off.
Another aspect might be the lack of analyst coverage. A company, this small, remains under many radars. And almost no one will even dare to make any projections. They, too, could end up chasing. I‘m pretty sure that once we hit 20, someone will make the bold prediction that we might also hit 40. But to realize that 2 was a lot more interesting, that must be too much to ask. When standard indicators don’t apply yet, it seems like hardly anyone is ready to make a prediction anyway.
