Once again Xuejun nails it
from the Yahoo board:
While the shorts are bragging about their gains at the expense of the apparent “failure“ of CD12 (which unfortunately has real consequences in delaying saving human lives), it is important for my fellow longs to stay calm and cool. Just recognize the following facts:
1. CD12 study was designed as a phase 2/3 study and it has demonstrated many positive results despite missing the primary endpoint, so it was NOT a failed study;
2. The imbalance of patients age in the two treatment groups was a randomization misfortune, but it is not a fatal error; if age was considered as a stratification factor in the randomization scheme, it would have avoided this issue and the magical threshold of P<0.05 would have been met for the primary endpoint (even with the current sample size); Also, it is statistically common practice to adjust for various factors such as age, gender, other demographic characteristics in the analysis;
3. Setbacks in clinical development are common even for big companies and they are not surprising for small biotech; It’s the nature of the game, although sometimes the lessons can be very expensive;
4. With the new data from the CD12 study showing that the drug really works, there will be more serious interest from the BIG guys, so the chance of CYDY going bankrupt without some financial help from somewhere is ZERO even if it may take several months to get EUA approval;
5. COVID-19 will NOT “magically disappear someday” even with the availability of multiple vaccines, and there will be patients who need this drug to save their lives;
6. If proven efficacious in COVID-19 due to its mechanism of action on the cytokine storm, why shouldn’t it also work for the cytokine storms caused by other virus, such as flu?
7. No matter what happens to COVID, the HIV phase 3 data were so convincing that BLA filing and approval is just a matter of time;
8. It is possible that NP and CYDY management will be humbled by this experience and they will seriously consider partnership deals with a BP company with resources and experiences in both drug development and dealing with government agencies;
9. And all other potential phase 2 and 3 programs will be reality once the company gets billions of dollars from collaborative deals and/or Leronlimab sales revenue. NP shouldn’t comment on the stock price as the CEO, but we know there is real upside potential to many folds of the current price.
So, the bottom line of my thinking is: if you look a little bit far beyond the next 3 to 6 months, $3 per share today would still be a steal ! Any longs still having cash reserved may consider dollar cost average as the price fluctuates; or if you are in a similar situation as myself without much cash left, at least hold our shares!
