Followers | 680 |
Posts | 141209 |
Boards Moderated | 36 |
Alias Born | 03/10/2004 |
Wednesday, March 03, 2021 5:44:08 PM
By: Dr. Arnout ter Schure | March 3, 2021
In my last article on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), I found it had adhered almost perfectly to the ideal Fibonacci-based Elliott Wave Principle count for quite some time, and that it, therefore, should bottom ideally around $129.50 before heading to $151.60.
However, Apple traded down to $118 last week and invalidated the "wave-4, 5" set up.
See Figure 1 below.
Because the EWP and any technical analyses, for that matter, are all about "anticipate, monitor and adjust if necessary," the decline last week forces me to adjust my EWP count on Apple. In this update, I have also included Apple's weekly and monthly charts for improved analyses, as different timeframes need to have aligned EWP counts.
Figure 1. Apple daily candlestick chart with technical indicators and preferred Elliott Wave count:
Apple Daily Candlestick Chart.
As said, the current decline is now too deep for a 4th wave. I have adjusted my EWP count to suggest the late-October low was a failed c-wave (does not end below the prior a-wave, the September low in this case). The stock then rallied clearly in a lovely Fibonacci-based impulse pattern to its recent all-time-high, struck two days before its "best-ever" earnings release on Jan. 27. Several other high-flying stocks (Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)) are now also down double-digits on good earnings, showing that only relying on fundamentals is neither flawless trading and investing strategy.
Back to Apple. It currently has two options, as shown by the black and grey paths. Either rally from about current levels above the (grey) a/i low made in January to invalidate an impulse down or, indeed, form an impulsive wave down to ideally $115+/-2 to complete (red) intermediate wave-a. Then it should bounce back to resistance at around $130+/-10 for red wave-"b?" followed by another impulse down to $105+/-5 to complete red wave-c of wave-4 as a zigzag.
Figure 2. AAPL weekly and monthly candlestick chart with technical indicators and preferred Elliott Wave count:
Apple Weekly Chart.
The weekly chart above shows Apple would do an ideal 38.20% retrace of (black) major wave-3 at $105+/-5 (lower end of the black box), typical for the 4th wave of the same degree. Note the negative divergence on all technical indicators, dotted red arrows, strongly suggesting more downside is ahead of the next several weeks. The weekly chart lends itself very well for a coherent, logical EWP count matching the monthly chart.
The monthly chart above, note the log scale, is not any better regarding the negative divergence (orange dotted arrows) and, therefore, also foretells a larger pending correction. Given this chart's timeframe, it is most likely a warning of the (purple) Cycle-4 wave. This wave would bring Apple back to late-2018 levels ($30+/10). Sounds crazy? Not really. Cycle-2 was an 84% haircut, (blue) Primary-II was an 83% decline, and 2008 saw a 63% correction. Other corrective waves were all in the 30-50% range (not shown). Hence, Apple has experienced extensive corrections, and an 80+% drop for a Cycle 4 wave is, therefore, nothing out of the ordinary. If it has happened before, it can happen again. Besides, 4th waves often tend to erase the entire prior one-degree-lower 5th wave, just like the current Major-4 wave is doing. Knowing Primary-V started December 2018 at $35, I expect Cycle-4 will erase all of its gains.
Bottom line: Apple's deeper than anticipated decline forces me to abandon my preferred EWP count and look for lower prices first (ideally around $105+/-5) before the stock is ready to embark on its final rally to $150+. Once reached, it should see a market correction similar to, and of the same wave-degree as, the 83% decline from 1991 to 1997.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
• DiscoverGold
Recent AAPL News
- Weekly Surge for Render and Toncoin, US Bancorp Expands Bitcoin ETF Investments, and More in Crypto • IH Market News • 05/10/2024 07:32:06 PM
- Novavax Surges 57% Post $1.4 Billion Sanofi Deal; Apple Boosts Data Centers with AI and Internal Chips, and More News • IH Market News • 05/10/2024 12:02:56 PM
- Bain Capital in Talks to Acquire PowerSchool; Blackstone Emerges Victorious in Hipgnosis Bidding War, and More News • IH Market News • 05/09/2024 11:53:19 AM
- Meta Platforms Expands AI Ads, Apple Boosts iPhone Shipments, and More Highlights • IH Market News • 05/08/2024 12:27:48 PM
- Apple unveils stunning new iPad Pro with the world’s most advanced display, M4 chip, and Apple Pencil Pro • Business Wire • 05/07/2024 02:37:00 PM
- Apple unveils the redesigned 11-inch and all-new 13-inch iPad Air, supercharged by the M2 chip • Business Wire • 05/07/2024 02:37:00 PM
- Apple introduces M4 chip • Business Wire • 05/07/2024 02:37:00 PM
- Final Cut Pro transforms video creation with Live Multicam on iPad and new AI features on Mac • Business Wire • 05/07/2024 02:37:00 PM
- Logic Pro takes music-making to the next level with new AI features • Business Wire • 05/07/2024 02:37:00 PM
- Tesla’s April Sales Down 18% in China, Amazon’s Multi-Billion Dollar Cloud Expansion in Singapore, and More News • IH Market News • 05/07/2024 11:44:00 AM
- Index Futures Point to Strong Monday Opening, Building on Last Week’s Gains; Oil Prices Rise • IH Market News • 05/06/2024 12:09:15 PM
- Perficient Stock Soars 52.9% Post-Acquisition; Luminar Declines 10% Amid Workforce Cutbacks, and Other News • IH Market News • 05/06/2024 12:09:00 PM
- Jobs Data, Apple Earnings Contribute To Extended Rally On Wall Street • IH Market News • 05/03/2024 08:25:49 PM
- Jobs Data, Apple Earnings May Lead To Extended Rally On Wall Street • IH Market News • 05/03/2024 01:09:33 PM
- Apple reports second quarter results • Business Wire • 05/02/2024 08:30:00 PM
- U.S. Stocks Rally Amid Easing Worries About Possible Rate Hike • IH Market News • 05/02/2024 08:20:39 PM
- Alphabet CEO’s Billion-Dollar Wealth, Microsoft’s $1.7B Indonesia Investment, and More News • IH Market News • 04/30/2024 11:58:40 AM
- Philips Stocks Soar 47% Following US Deal, Tesla Bolsters Presence in China, and More News • IH Market News • 04/29/2024 11:11:24 AM
- BHP Bids $38.8 Billion for Anglo American; Biden Unveils Historic Micron Technology Deal, and More News • IH Market News • 04/25/2024 11:48:40 AM
- Coca-Cola and Microsoft Sign Billion-Dollar Agreement, Apple Event Set for May 7, and More News • IH Market News • 04/24/2024 11:28:02 AM
- AKT Token Skyrockets on Upbit Listing, IBIT Holds Strong in Top 10 ETFs, and More Crypto News • IH Market News • 04/23/2024 04:34:08 PM
- Apple Loses Market Share in China, GM Surges in Pre-Market Following Upward Revisions for 2024 Projections, and More News • IH Market News • 04/23/2024 11:25:34 AM
- Li Auto Stock Drops 7.3% Amid Tesla Price Cuts, Salesforce Retreats from Informatica Deal, and Other Market Updates • IH Market News • 04/22/2024 12:09:21 PM
- Paramount’s Shares Surge Following Sony and Apollo’s Joint Bid; ISS Backs Berkshire Hathaway Director Re-election, and More • IH Market News • 04/19/2024 11:31:22 AM
- Apple to Invest $250 Million in Singapore Expansion, Oracle Commits $8 Billion to Japan Infrastructure, and More News • IH Market News • 04/18/2024 11:11:52 AM
Avant Technologies Equipping AI-Managed Data Center with High Performance Computing Systems • AVAI • May 10, 2024 8:00 AM
VAYK Discloses Strategic Conversation on Potential Acquisition of $4 Million Home Service Business • VAYK • May 9, 2024 9:00 AM
Bantec's Howco Awarded $4.19 Million Dollar U.S. Department of Defense Contract • BANT • May 8, 2024 10:00 AM
Element79 Gold Corp Successfully Closes Maverick Springs Option Agreement • ELEM • May 8, 2024 9:05 AM
Kona Gold Beverages, Inc. Achieves April Revenues Exceeding $586,000 • KGKG • May 8, 2024 8:30 AM
Epazz plans to spin off Galaxy Batteries Inc. • EPAZ • May 8, 2024 7:05 AM