Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[jamesnhansen]

CVM's Price Before and After the $41 Print

The trading before and after $41 seems entirely coherent to me. What should it be other than what it is?

In theory, the future price of this stock is bifurcated at $1 and $300. So, if we assign a probability to the this we should end up with an "equilibrium price." It should just stay there all the time on very light volume. All the time. But, people loose patience, so it just slowly fades. All the time. All day. All afternoon. Which is exactly what it does — just not all the time. Then it does exactly the opposite.

On a few occasions it tends to jump wildly toward one future outcome or the other — sometimes for no apparent reason whatsoever. This is classic chaos theory: sensitive dependence on initial conditions:

As the volume dries up, the traders place buy and sell stops just above and below the "quiet" price. The orders get larger and larger the longer this goes on. I'll bet that right now, one person has something like three 200,000 share buy-stops orders about five points above the market about a point apart. Even a random small trade can set off an "avalanche" in these conditions. Sometimes a large option trade—but small relative to the dollar investment in the stock — can trigger large sudden price-change too.

Indeed, quiet trading is a precondition for the sudden runs in share price. And the sudden price runs are a precondition for the dead quiet/slow death.

CVM has LOW market correlation. It has "signal" vs. "noise". So what is the true signal? Well I'm about 200 hours of study into this sucker and I think we are on the doorstep of a surprising new cancer treatment. Or not.

Heading out to bike in the sunny Oregon countryside.

Cheers,

Jim