Friday, February 26, 2021 8:52:35 AM
*AM Metals Roundup* Risk Off Down Bubble
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"No one today likes truth: utility and self interest have long ago been substituted for truth. We live in a nightmare of falsehoods, and there are few who are sufficiently awake and aware to see things as they are. Our first duty is to clear away illusions and recover a sense of reality."
Nikolai Alexandrovich Berdyaev
"Our basic trouble was not an insufficiency of capital. It was an insufficient distribution of buying power coupled with an over-sufficient speculation in production.
Do what we may have to do to inject life into our ailing economic order, we cannot make it endure for long unless we can bring about a wiser, more equitable distribution of the national income.”
Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932
“They were careless people, Tom and Daisy — they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness, or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”
F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby
The bubble momentum trade in financial assets was getting crowded and overdone.
The mavens of the markets tried to shake off the hangers-on yesterday, but Jay Powell nixed their plans with his happy talk.
So today the captains of Wall Street called for a down bubble, emergency deep.
Time to take out the garbage. Scrape the hull.
The challenge the financiers presented to the Fed showed up in the yields of the longer dated 5+ Treasuries and curve.
Despite the selling, the Dollar tread water very nicely just above 90.
VIX went north.
A grand wash day.
What will Chairman Jay and his banker buddies do next in response?
Or is this just another episode of kabuki theater among financial friends.
Let's see what comes out in the rinse.
Have a pleasant evening.
https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
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METALS-Copper spirals lower as bond rout spooks investors
By Eric Onstad
(Adds analyst comment, updates prices, changes dateline from HANOI)
LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Copper recoiled on Friday after touching successive multi-year peaks, falling more than 3% as risk-off sentiment hit wider financial markets after a spike in bond yields.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) had slumped 3.2% to $9,112 a tonne by 1135 GMT, having hit multi-year peaks in six consecutive sessions.
On Thursday, LME copper hit its highest since August 2011 at $9,617 a tonne, 5.6% short if its record high of $10,190 in February 2011.
Other metals, such as aluminium and nickel, were also hit as Asian shares suffered their heaviest fall in nine months amid a rout in global bond markets that sent yields flying.
“The short-term outlook is probably one of caution, with risk-off deleveraging hovering over the market,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen.
“What we are seeing is probably an overdue and healthy stage of consolidation at best or a correction at worst.”
A lot would depend on the reaction of big Chinese players that have taken large positions, such as Shanghai Dalu Futures, which has amassed a $1 billion long position in copper contracts, Hansen added.
“The question is what kind of pain threshold those big whales in the Chinese market have,” he said. “We could run into a cascading wave of long liquidation, but I think the fundamental reason for owning commodities will probably prevent a major correction.”
The most-traded April copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed 2.1% down at 67,950 yuan ($10,507.68) a tonne, but marked its best month since November 2016.
* Peru’s Southern Copper Corp plans to push forward new and pending projects as demand from China and constrained supply generally help to propel a global price rally, an executive said.
* LME aluminium fell 1.5% to $2,202 a tonne, zinc declined 1.8% to $2,839.50, nickel dropped 2.8% to $18,660, lead was down 1.6% at $2,124 and tin retreated 3.1% to $26,000.
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Gold price slumps to 8-mo. low on rising bond yields, bounce in USDX
Friday February 26, 2021 08:28
(Kitco News) - Gold futures prices are solidly lower again in early U.S. trading Friday and hit an eight-month low. Rising government bond yields that are at least short-term bearish for the precious metals markets and a good bounce in the U.S. dollar index Friday are weighing on the precious metals markets. Gold prices are presently headed for a very technically bearish weekly and monthly low close on this last trading day of the week and of the month. April gold futures were last down $14.60 at $1,760.60 and March Comex silver was last down $0.782 at $26.855 an ounce.
Marketplace attention is squarely on the strong rise in government bond yields this week, which saw the benchmark U.S. Treasury yield push above 1.6% at one point late this week. The 10-year yield has backed off a bit Friday and is fetching 1.475%. Higher bond yields are throwing a scare into the stock market bulls who have had a seemingly free pass to higher and higher share prices in recent months. However, the rising bond yields, if they continue to do so, will erode some investor interest in the stock market. The technology sector of stocks is already spooked as seen by bigger losses this week.
Bond yields are climbing on notions the major global economies will break out of their pandemic shackles in strong fashion during the second half of this year. Also, U.S. Democrats are ready to push a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package through the U.S. House Friday. That win is expected despite a setback that means a minimum wage boost is unlikely to be in the final version that reaches President Biden. A near party-line vote seemed certain on the relief measure in the House.
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Bearish weekly and monthly low closes in the stock indexes today would be an ominously bearish signal that the indexes may have put in at least near-term tops if not major tops.
The markets are paying little attention to a U.S. military precision strike against Iranian- backed camps in Syria overnight. U.S.-Iran tensions were already elevated and the U.S. military action may prompt retaliation from Iran.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $62.20 a barrel after hitting a 13-month high on Thursday. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher early today on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the advance economic indicators report, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
Technically, the April gold futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a seven-week-old price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in April futures above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,773.80 and then at $1,784.60. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,753.50 and then at $1,750.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0
March silver futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading this week and do not want to see a bearish weekly low close today. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $28.425 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $26.00. First resistance is seen at $27.00 and then at $27.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $26.625 and then at $26.105. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
By Jim Wyckoff
For Kitco News
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Bubble Update
February 26, 2021
Gary Savage
Spike in inflation and radical policies by the new US administration have people running out of debt. Has the potential to ignite, a trigger for an intermediate decline in the markets.
Video>>>> https://goldseek.com/article/bubble-update-0
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Russia's Nornickel partially suspends operations at two mines due to water inflow
Feb 24, 2021
MOSCOW — Russian miner Norilsk Nickel said on Wednesday it had partially suspended operations at its Oktyabrsky and Taimyrsky mines in Siberia as it detected a groundwater inflow.
Nornickel, the world’s largest palladium producer and one of the world’s largest nickel producers, will assess the impact of the partial suspension on its production guidance once the situation is fixed, it said in a statement.
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Platinum is still undervalued relative to gold
Video>>>> https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Market-Analysis/3232/2021-02-25/Platinum-is-still-undervalued-relative-to-gold#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DMarket-Analysis
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Have a Wonderful weekend All
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.
"No one today likes truth: utility and self interest have long ago been substituted for truth. We live in a nightmare of falsehoods, and there are few who are sufficiently awake and aware to see things as they are. Our first duty is to clear away illusions and recover a sense of reality."
Nikolai Alexandrovich Berdyaev
"Our basic trouble was not an insufficiency of capital. It was an insufficient distribution of buying power coupled with an over-sufficient speculation in production.
Do what we may have to do to inject life into our ailing economic order, we cannot make it endure for long unless we can bring about a wiser, more equitable distribution of the national income.”
Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932
“They were careless people, Tom and Daisy — they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness, or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”
F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby
The bubble momentum trade in financial assets was getting crowded and overdone.
The mavens of the markets tried to shake off the hangers-on yesterday, but Jay Powell nixed their plans with his happy talk.
So today the captains of Wall Street called for a down bubble, emergency deep.
Time to take out the garbage. Scrape the hull.
The challenge the financiers presented to the Fed showed up in the yields of the longer dated 5+ Treasuries and curve.
Despite the selling, the Dollar tread water very nicely just above 90.
VIX went north.
A grand wash day.
What will Chairman Jay and his banker buddies do next in response?
Or is this just another episode of kabuki theater among financial friends.
Let's see what comes out in the rinse.
Have a pleasant evening.
https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
.
.
.
METALS-Copper spirals lower as bond rout spooks investors
By Eric Onstad
(Adds analyst comment, updates prices, changes dateline from HANOI)
LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Copper recoiled on Friday after touching successive multi-year peaks, falling more than 3% as risk-off sentiment hit wider financial markets after a spike in bond yields.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) had slumped 3.2% to $9,112 a tonne by 1135 GMT, having hit multi-year peaks in six consecutive sessions.
On Thursday, LME copper hit its highest since August 2011 at $9,617 a tonne, 5.6% short if its record high of $10,190 in February 2011.
Other metals, such as aluminium and nickel, were also hit as Asian shares suffered their heaviest fall in nine months amid a rout in global bond markets that sent yields flying.
“The short-term outlook is probably one of caution, with risk-off deleveraging hovering over the market,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen.
“What we are seeing is probably an overdue and healthy stage of consolidation at best or a correction at worst.”
A lot would depend on the reaction of big Chinese players that have taken large positions, such as Shanghai Dalu Futures, which has amassed a $1 billion long position in copper contracts, Hansen added.
“The question is what kind of pain threshold those big whales in the Chinese market have,” he said. “We could run into a cascading wave of long liquidation, but I think the fundamental reason for owning commodities will probably prevent a major correction.”
The most-traded April copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed 2.1% down at 67,950 yuan ($10,507.68) a tonne, but marked its best month since November 2016.
* Peru’s Southern Copper Corp plans to push forward new and pending projects as demand from China and constrained supply generally help to propel a global price rally, an executive said.
* LME aluminium fell 1.5% to $2,202 a tonne, zinc declined 1.8% to $2,839.50, nickel dropped 2.8% to $18,660, lead was down 1.6% at $2,124 and tin retreated 3.1% to $26,000.
.
.
Gold price slumps to 8-mo. low on rising bond yields, bounce in USDX
Friday February 26, 2021 08:28
(Kitco News) - Gold futures prices are solidly lower again in early U.S. trading Friday and hit an eight-month low. Rising government bond yields that are at least short-term bearish for the precious metals markets and a good bounce in the U.S. dollar index Friday are weighing on the precious metals markets. Gold prices are presently headed for a very technically bearish weekly and monthly low close on this last trading day of the week and of the month. April gold futures were last down $14.60 at $1,760.60 and March Comex silver was last down $0.782 at $26.855 an ounce.
Marketplace attention is squarely on the strong rise in government bond yields this week, which saw the benchmark U.S. Treasury yield push above 1.6% at one point late this week. The 10-year yield has backed off a bit Friday and is fetching 1.475%. Higher bond yields are throwing a scare into the stock market bulls who have had a seemingly free pass to higher and higher share prices in recent months. However, the rising bond yields, if they continue to do so, will erode some investor interest in the stock market. The technology sector of stocks is already spooked as seen by bigger losses this week.
Bond yields are climbing on notions the major global economies will break out of their pandemic shackles in strong fashion during the second half of this year. Also, U.S. Democrats are ready to push a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package through the U.S. House Friday. That win is expected despite a setback that means a minimum wage boost is unlikely to be in the final version that reaches President Biden. A near party-line vote seemed certain on the relief measure in the House.
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Bearish weekly and monthly low closes in the stock indexes today would be an ominously bearish signal that the indexes may have put in at least near-term tops if not major tops.
The markets are paying little attention to a U.S. military precision strike against Iranian- backed camps in Syria overnight. U.S.-Iran tensions were already elevated and the U.S. military action may prompt retaliation from Iran.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $62.20 a barrel after hitting a 13-month high on Thursday. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher early today on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the advance economic indicators report, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
Technically, the April gold futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a seven-week-old price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in April futures above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,773.80 and then at $1,784.60. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,753.50 and then at $1,750.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0
March silver futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading this week and do not want to see a bearish weekly low close today. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $28.425 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $26.00. First resistance is seen at $27.00 and then at $27.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $26.625 and then at $26.105. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
By Jim Wyckoff
For Kitco News
.
.
.
Bubble Update
February 26, 2021
Gary Savage
Spike in inflation and radical policies by the new US administration have people running out of debt. Has the potential to ignite, a trigger for an intermediate decline in the markets.
Video>>>> https://goldseek.com/article/bubble-update-0
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.
.
Russia's Nornickel partially suspends operations at two mines due to water inflow
Feb 24, 2021
MOSCOW — Russian miner Norilsk Nickel said on Wednesday it had partially suspended operations at its Oktyabrsky and Taimyrsky mines in Siberia as it detected a groundwater inflow.
Nornickel, the world’s largest palladium producer and one of the world’s largest nickel producers, will assess the impact of the partial suspension on its production guidance once the situation is fixed, it said in a statement.
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.
.
Platinum is still undervalued relative to gold
Video>>>> https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Market-Analysis/3232/2021-02-25/Platinum-is-still-undervalued-relative-to-gold#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DMarket-Analysis
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Have a Wonderful weekend All
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