General Stock Ideas

[bigworld]

ombow: I totally agree. But the Fed has always managed to intervene the markets toward higher prices. They allow some steam to escape but at the right moment they always unleash a mountain of liquidity and utilize their proxy traders like Citadel to buy umpteen Billion worth of e-Minis overnight to juice the market. With the fundamentals where they are I would ordinarily be short with 50% of my net worth. I could write a chapter on how overvalued this market is and how it is 180 degrees out of phase with the underlying economy. But as long as The Fed can print unlimited Dollars to chase asset prices a person can't over commit to the short side. That's why shorts as a percentage of total market cap is at one of the lowest levels in history, and speculative excess like margin debt is so high. Eventually the stock market is going to lose 60-80% over the next several years. But a Dollar crisis from excess money printing will have to arise first, which would handcuff The Fed and force interest rates to rise significantly. That will kill the stock market.