8:30a Durable Goods
New Orders - M/M 3.4% actual vs 1.2% (rev) prior
Ex-Transportation - M/M 1.4% actual vs 1.7% (rev) prior
Core Capital Goods - M/M 0.5% actual vs 1.5% (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders are expected to accelerate further in January, at a consensus 1.1 percent following December's 0.5 percent gain (revised from an initial 0.2 percent increase). A gain of 0.6 percent is expected for ex-transportation orders.
Definition
Durable goods orders are new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory hard goods. The report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. The advance release provides early estimates and is revised about a week later by the factory orders report.
8:30a Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Claims - Level 730K actual vs 841K (rev) prior
Initial Claims - Change -111K actual vs -7K (rev) prior
4-Week Moving Average 807.75K actual vs 828.25K (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
Jobless claims for the February 20 week are expected to ease a bit to 815,000 versus 861,000 in the February 13 week. Initial filings have remained alarmingly heavy.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
8:30a GDP Q4
Quarter over Quarter - Annual Rate 4.1% actual vs 4.0% prior
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Annual Rate 2.4% actual vs 2.5% prior
Consensus Outlook
The second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP is expected to be little changed from the first, at plus 4.1 percent overall versus 4.0 percent initially.
Definition
Gross Domestic Product represents the total value of the country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically-produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and government entities. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, as well as in index form. Economists and market players always monitor the real growth rates generated by the GDP quantity index or the real dollar value. The quantity index measures inflation-adjusted activity, but we are more accustomed to looking at dollar values.
Household purchases are counted in personal consumption expenditures -- durable goods (such as furniture and cars), nondurable goods (such as clothing and food) and services (such as banking, education and transportation). Private housing purchases are classified as residential investment. Businesses invest in nonresidential structures, durable equipment and computer software. Inventories at all stages of production are counted as investment. Only inventory changes, not levels, are added to GDP.
Net exports equal the sum of exports less imports. Exports are the purchases by foreigners of goods and services produced in the United States. Imports represent domestic purchases of foreign-produced goods and services and must be deducted from the calculation of GDP. Government purchases of goods and services are the compensation of government employees and purchases from businesses and abroad. Data show the portion attributed to consumption and investment. Government outlays for transfer payments or interest payments are not included in GDP.
The GDP price index is a comprehensive indicator of inflation. It is typically lower than the consumer price index because investment goods (which are in the GDP price index but not the CPI) tend to have lower rates of inflation than consumer goods and services. Note that contributions of each component, as averaged over the prior year, are tracked in the table below (components do not exactly sum to total due to chain-weighted methodology). Consumption expenditures, otherwise known as consumer spending, has over history been steadily making up an increasing share of GDP.
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