Ombow, Just curious what your downside estimate for CYDY is if the severe trial bombed? As an investor, you have to consider the possibility. I would say $1s or possibly less. Are you prepared for something like that? Can you survive financially if that happens?
These aren't just hypothetical questions. You often hear the term 'busted bio' because it happens a lot.
More likely what we'll see is not a completely bombed trial, but a missed primary endpoint but some secondary endpoints that were met. So something like the mild/mod trial, but probably better efficacy than that trial. Then the question is will it be enough for the FDA to give the green light?
Too much uncertainty for me. Imo, best to forget about biotech. I recently moved out of sector ETFs and individual stocks in favor of broad market ETFs for the stock portion of the portfolio. Most of the stock exposure was already in those broad ETFs, but now it's almost all there. That's balanced by the bonds, REITS, gold/silver, and cash. Broad ETFs also have the advantage of allowing a quick exit if things really start to unravel.
Anyway, to each his own strategy. I put a lot of emphasis on the idea of 'living to fight another day' :o)
