ImmunoGen Inc (IMGN)

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News Flash: Analysts Just Made An Incredible Upgrade To Their ImmunoGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:IMGN) Forecasts


IMGN
-6.14%
Simply Wall St
February 14, 2021·4 min read


IMGN
-6.14%
ImmunoGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:IMGN) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The revenue forecast for this year has experienced a facelift, with analysts now much more optimistic on its sales pipeline. The market may be pricing in some blue sky too, with the share price gaining 37% to US$10.53 in the last 7 days. Could this upgrade be enough to drive the stock even higher?

Following the latest upgrade, the ten analysts covering ImmunoGen provided consensus estimates of US$71m revenue in 2021, which would reflect a painful 46% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.78 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$53m and losses of US$0.77 per share in 2021. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts noticeably increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to hold steady.



There were no major changes to the US$9.81 consensus price target despite the higher revenue estimates, with the analysts seeming to believe that ongoing losses have a larger impact on the valuation than growing sales. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic ImmunoGen analyst has a price target of US$17.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$6.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how think this business will perform. As a result it might not be possible to derive much meaning from the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast revenue decline of 46%, a significant reduction from annual growth of 8.0% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 20% next year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - ImmunoGen is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line
The highlight for us was that the consensus reduced its estimated losses this year, perhaps suggesting ImmunoGen is moving incrementally towards profitability. Pleasantly, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow slower than the wider market. Seeing the dramatic upgrade to this year's forecasts, it might be time to take another look at ImmunoGen.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple ImmunoGen analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/news-flash-analysts-just-made-042548468.html