The Realities of production timing.
Many on this board are the victims of their own over anticipation.
When the first shipment of eggs reached Vietnam in October some predicted tons of finished product in 4 weeks.
Reality is that silkworms need time to grow and spin and the cocoons need time to be harvested and reeled and spun.
I stated back then that it would be 2 to 3 months before any fiber was produced.
I was optimistic by about 1 month rather than 3!
A reasonable assumption given the very unequal food demands of growing silkworms is that they will be produced in cohorts started every week rather than in non-overlapping batches.
Additionally many hectares of Mulberry must be planted and grown to production maturity to feed the worms.
It was stated that the first batches would be dedicated to egg multiplication rather than to silk fiber production.
Thus, after ~2 months the first expanded cohorts would just be starting.
Even the second phase batches are likely still being used partially for expansion rather than fiber production.
Remember that the final goal is many billions of eggs per month!
It is therefore to be expected that the first shipments would be 10% or less of the second generation cohorts, 10 or 100 Kilos rather than tons.
A second shipment should be expected when the next cohort is complete, sometime between 5 and 30 days depending on Prodigy's initial cohort timing.
It will also be small as egg production is still paramount.
The first ton++ shipment should occur when the third generation is completed, in about another 60 days.
The important take away from this announcement is that the pipeline has been established, and barring natural disasters or new pandemics the commercial production stream should grow in volume over time.
THIS is the news I have been waiting for for 12 + years!
- Mike L.
