Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[jamesnhansen]

Here is a Cel Sci Inferred OS Calculator

P3 Calculator

I plan to share it more broadly after I receive feedback here. Thanks in advance for taking a critical look.

This calculator allows the user to input variables for:
• Two control arm standard of care overall survival (OS) curve scenarios
• The dropout-rate
• Inclusion of enrollees for any month of the study
• Extended overall survival in the control arm due to the clinical trial effect (CTE)

I reviewed ten 10Ks and forty-10Qs and several prospectuses to confirm the monthly enrollment numbers. I compared these data with the work of Fosco.

I first met Geert at LD Micro in early December 2019. When he mentioned “928” and “298” and “ten years” and “50% year-5 overall survival” and “still waiting,” I immediately concluded that the chances of Cel-Sci’s PIII trial failing was equal to selecting the correct grain of sand off the world’s beaches. My day job is the financial technology developer for my company that purchases life settlements based upon a Bayesian Inference model I developed. By complete coincidence, I had thoroughly modeled 900-person portfolios with similar survival rates.

Geert will recall that my partner and I buttonholed him after his presentation. I told him that he should NOT sandbag his presentation as just “looks good.” He said, “Well there’s more to it than just the numbers we discussed…”

Indeed! It’s NOT simple… There was the false start in 2013, the stop, the varied number of enrollees by month and the uncertainty in dropout rates. I fear this complexity unnecessarily fuels short interest and discourages investors.

I hope this calculator—once confirmed to be conceptually accurate—will benefit all. It provides a basis to better assess the possibility of success based on anyone’s assumptions.

I’m skiing this morning but will be available this afternoon. I’m open to suggestions to improve functionality or add features to this calculator. And, I’m not married at all to my variable assumptions.

Thank you to all here on this board for the steady flow of helpful information! I hope to ski and golf with you all to celebrate someday soon while we are all still young.

Enjoy.

Cheers from Oregon

Jim