Why We Are Not Seeing Potential New Investors.
As you have probably noticed the share price has remained fairly static. We won't go much higher than 6 and 5 seems to be our floor. We see what would be considered "discount" buying when the share price slinks below 5.50.
So why aren't we seeing new investors at this juncture? Well there are a few problems.
1. Lack Of Value.
As we sit in limbo over CD 12 results, we are at our core a start up biotech with no revenue and no product. We are an idea with some data behind us. That's good when you are a fresh company. But we are no longer a fresh out of the gate race horse. We are in the final furlong and at this stage people want binary outcomes.
Our only binary outcome is the HIV BLA being delayed. But that can be taken as a no. And when people are looking for yes and no, even a no with a silver lining counts against an investment.
2. Research Turns Up Less Than Credible Sources.
Anyone smart enough to research a stock is smart enough to determine the source of information they are looking at. So all the boogeymen from Buyersstrike! to Adam Feuerstein are going to be discounted for what they are. Citron's actions will be noted.
What also gets noted are the sources cheering on CYDY. So I'm not worried about promotional stuff, no one is. It's understood part of a CEO's job is to cheerlead. It can be the other things turned up that turn off an investor.
If you see that the support for a stock comes from people giving analysis followed by "Bill Gates Vaccine Conspiracy," "FDA Corruption," and "Dr. Fauci is Dr. Falsi" statements and theories, it's a turn off. It turns them off because seeing conspiracy statements and political rants in market analysis reflects on the quality of analysis.
So we are hurt by that. Every time something like that gets peddled on some small website or on Twitter prospective investors can assume the people investing in CYDY are not competent investors.
3. No Fundamentals Available.
So for those that like trading off Fundamentals we really don't have any. That's because we are a start up biotech so everything is dependent on drug development and approval. We are entirely different beast from other stocks. It takes a certain kind of investors to hop on a start up biotech and ride it out.
This is why the first year of revenue will be huge for us. Because then we really start generating data that value investors will like to see. It's why we will see several pops and the investing landscape will change for us. But we aren't there yet.
Were I CEO
Let's say our data shows we only "trend" in reducing mortality. Well I would dig through what secondary endpoints we hit and file an EUA. The FDA is likely to grant it based on what we are seeing with the progression of the pandemic.
For those of you not aware the life expectancy in the US dropped by a full year. That hasn't happened since World War II. So that should give you an idea of the kind of impact this disease is having.
Next I would drop the self injecting device for the HIV BLA and just sell the vials. I might have to knock off a few bucks to make up for people having to get their own needles but I can revisit the device later after revenue rolls in.
Worst comes to worst I would get the HIV BLA sorted out and done in the next 3 months if COVID was no longer an option.
I'd like to get COVID and HIV squared away because cancer results becomes my carrot for a rather large buyout. I would do a cash/shares combo to stay attractive and make sure long term share holders get paid out.
But that's me and my opinion.
