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Thursday, 02/18/2021 1:05:15 PM

Thursday, February 18, 2021 1:05:15 PM

Post# of 37920

Gold setting up major bottom so could we see a breakout rally begin soon? : https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2021-02-18/Gold-setting-up-major-bottom-so-could-we-see-a-breakout-rally-begin-soon.html

Excerpts:
My research team and I believe the recent downside trend in Gold has reached a support level, near $1765, that will act as a launching pad for a potentially big upside price trend.

The February 2021 Gold contract expires on February 24 – only a few days away. The CME Delivery Report shows an incredible amount of contracts already giving notice of a “Delivery Request”. This suggests that on or near February 25, a supply squeeze for Gold and Silver may become a very real component of price.

For example, there are 32,831 contracts requesting delivery for February 2021 COMEX 100 Gold Futures as of February 16, 2021. That reflects a total delivery obligation of 3,283,100 ounces of Gold. The Silver contract deliveries are similar in size. As of February 16, 2021, there are 1,865 February 2021 COMEX 5000 Silver contracts requesting delivery. That translates into over 9,325,000 ounces of Silver.

We still have another five trading days to go before the February contract expires. How many more futures contract holders will pile into the Delivery Que at COMEX and how will this translate into any potential price advance or decline?

Silver has already begun to move higher while Gold continues to wallow near recent lows. Our research team believes the next few days of trading in Gold and Silver could become very volatile as global traders suddenly realize the demand for Deliveries may squeeze prices much higher.

We need to watch how Gold reacts near this support level and to pay attention to the delivery data from COMEX. If these levels continue to increase over the next few days, before the February 24 expiration date, then we need to consider how and when the price will start to reflect this strong demand. Currently, Gold price activity does not properly reflect what is happening in Silver and Platinum related to the demand for metals. We believe, over the next 30 to 60+ days, this will change as Gold may enter a new bullish price phase – targeting $2400. At this point, we believe the answer to this question will become known by February 25th or so.

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