The Black Box

[sylvester80]

BTW Chris, this is a very interesting portion of that article:

"Belkin believes that the Bush administration essentially “rented the 2003 recovery from Wal-Mart (WMT, news, msgs)” by cutting taxes and mailing out rebate checks, and now faces an “involuntary deleveraging process” that will feed into weaker corporate results, softer economic statistics, worsening unemployment and, eventually, a sharp decline in real-estate values. In his Oct. 12 report to clients, he warned that “deleveragings are not low-volatility events -- a financial market dislocation in the fourth quarter is likely.” And in his Oct. 19 report he upped the ante, stating that “the contrast between bullish equity-market psychology and deteriorating private-sector credit conditions is bizarre,” concluding: “The point of a bear-market rally is to make everyone bullish again just before the market does its next swan dive.”

It would be interesting to see if his prediction comes true as his previous ones.