Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc (ALDX)

[Rayn_Makr]

Revenue estimate based on Xiidera:
I was somewhat shocked by the monthly cost of $553/month
https://www.goodrx.com/xiidra
I was also curious about how tough it will be to capture market share and, based on the reviews, it looks like that will be fairly easy.

"Xiidra has an average rating of 3.9 out of 10 from a total of 180 ratings for the treatment of Dry Eye Disease. 22% of those users who reviewed Xiidra reported a positive effect, while 58% reported a negative effect"

https://www.drugs.com/comments/lifitegrast-ophthalmic/xiidra-for-dry-eye-disease.html?page=2#:~:text=Xiidra%20has%20an%20average%20rating,58%25%20reported%20a%20negative%20effect.

Seems expensive for those results but anyway I plugged in the following numbers.
30 million affected with dry eye. 1% = 300,000
300,000 x $500/month x 12 = $1.8 B annually
$1.8 B x 0.15 (net margins) = $270,000,000 net

It certainly looks like there is substantial opportunity to bring a new, more effective treatment onto the market. The revenue projections are highly speculative. Time will tell. I cannot find Xiidera revenue in the Novartis annual report since it was recently launched. Probably pretty low. I would guess it'll take 5 years to get the MD's to prescribe anything close to the $270 M number. So start with $50 M net annually as a guesstimate.

$50 M per year net and 37 M shares = $1.35 earnings per share
PE of 20 gets the share price to $27. Lots of variables and moving parts but I like these numbers. I was surprised how close they are to what the analysts provide.