I'm starting to be a bitcoin believer at least in terms of the idea that this is going to continue to be a meaningful asset.
There is real institutional momentum around it at this point, and I think that is likely to accelerate. I have always been skeptical of bitcoin as a currency because it lacks the stability a currency requires. I can't very well sell someone a 747 if they are going to pay me in currency that may be worth 30% less a month from now. With institutions more involved I think that may start to get worked out.
I'm not as convinced of the long term value of miners. This strikes me as a pure commodity business with low barriers to entry. You are dependent primarily on coin prices staying elevated and acquiring very cheap power. The other issue is the halving. Every 4 years you get half as many coins mining as you had previously. That means long term viability absolutely requires a rising bitcoin price. It's a tough business when your revenue at a given level of production is cut in half every 4 years.
In the case of MKTY I primarily find the price discrepancy attractive. Brookstone seems legit to me. They were very smart in buying these bitcoin assets for nothing out of bankruptcy. Their original buy of MKTY was also a huge winner. They are working on a billion dollar wind energy project in Morocco. They have what appear to be some nice private equity exits, for example woodcrafters was sold for 300 million. So really I'm betting on the idea that at least in the mid-term this management group is competent enough to move meaningfully towards their promises, and taking their place among serious miners.
The other thing is I was treating this as cheap portfolio insurance against out of control inflation. I think the wall of money flushing through the system combined with reopenings could see things getting out of hand. That doesn't mean they will, but its possible. If we see 10% inflation crypto is likely to benefit immensely, and crypto stocks movements would be positively correlated with inflation.
