Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[jhalada]

wbmw,

You can still make money without having a stock position in either. I buy and sell options, which I think are perfectly good substitutes, if you choose the right ones. If you are interested in this, we should talk some more.

I would be willing to gamble a small amount on Intel's good Q4 results and Vista launch, which would probably mean February expiration. I would certainly welcome Intel going down in sympathy tomorrow (to get a better price).

The danger to Intel results is that the spotty reports of demand weakness in December may be real, and that it may have affected Intel as well.

BTW, I did have some Intel LEAPs earlier in 2006, when Intel was in the teens, but I sold them fairly quickly long time ago, which was probably a good idea, since Intel has not gone anywhere since then.

Longer term, I am more cautious, since all I see is more price competition in the low end, the vast middle of desktop and notebook.

Intel has been taking over the high end of desktop and 1 to 2S servers, where the performance competition is the most intense, and where performance advantage of Core 2 matters the most.

But in the competitive area, there is AMD no longer capacity constrained, giving discounts left and right (more emboldened by cheaper to produce, 65nnm X2 - which are bound to appear any day now) and OEMs very receptive to discounts.

BTW, I will probably take a look at Feb 20 and 22.5 calls...

Joe