Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

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Re: I don't expect Intel to miss their (fairly wide) range of guidance, but given AMD warning, I suspect Intel will be below mid point of the guidance.

That's your mistake. Assuming that Intel is still tied to AMD, even though they far surpass them now in product leadership. Haven't you learned by now that success follows the one with the leadership halo? If there's any doubt, wait until earnings. I'll be happy to eat crow if I am wrong, but I am already betting that I am not.

Re: I think Core 2 is doing just fine, I just worry about ASPs.

There's a quick sanity check you can do. Did Intel drastically reduce prices this past quarter? No, and the pricing of online retailers has been consistent, suggesting little to no grey market activity. Has AMD substantially lowered pricing? Not officially, but I have shown that they have indeed discounted heavily: #msg-15770298

This is a first order effect to ASPs. The second order effect is product mix.

So has Intel substantially changed their product mix? Yes, actually, they have. And it's been in the positive direction with a strong Core 2 ramp, and new quad core skus introduced towards the end of the quarter at higher price points. If anything, that ought to give an ASP lift for the quarter.

Up until now, I would have been unsure about AMD's product mix. I was half expecting them to do alright, given large discounts, but strong demand for dual core. Obviously, the mix wasn't good at all, and the discounts dragged ASPs down heavily. For them to crow about substantial increases in unit sales, and yet still only grow 3% in revenues, their ASPs must have tanked.

Re: If Intel experienced same or higher unit growth as AMD without falling ASPs, there is a potential for Intel to have a great quarter.

No need to tiptoe about potential. If Intel's ASPs are good, they will have a great quarter.