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NY Crude Oil Futures - Pressing Higher »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 6, 2021

NY Crude Oil Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. It closed today at 5685 and is trading up about 17% for the year from last year's settlement of 4852. As of now, this market has been rising for 2 months going into February reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 5729 while it is still trading above last month's high of 5393.

The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high eastablished back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 5 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2020 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 5526.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 1st at 5729, which was up 13 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 2nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 5729 to 5164. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 1st reaching 5729 has exceeded the previous high of 5393 made back during the week of January 11th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.

Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 9 months since the low established back in April 2020.

Critical support still underlies this market at 5080 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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