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Thursday, February 04, 2021 11:47:20 AM
Post-Election Februarys Have Been Even More Troublesome
By: Almanac Trader | February 4, 2021
From yesterday’s post, we knew February has a tepid recent record. In post-election years, February’s historically record has been even worse as historical average losses swell. In order to include as much data as we have available, we are using DJIA data since 1901, S&P 500 since 1930, NASDAQ from 1971 and Russell 1000& 2000 data beginning in 1979. When comparing post-election year February to the recent 21-year February seasonal pattern, the overall shape and trend does not change greatly however, weakness becomes more prevalent as the mid-month surge is less pronounced and second half declines expand.
Breaking down historical performance by year confirms frequent post-election-year February losses, most notably by NASDAQ and DJIA. Generally speaking, when February is positive it is an “ok” month, but when the month has been down, it has frequently been down by sizable amounts. There are seven double-digit losses in the table and not a single double-digit gain.
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DiscoverGold
By: Almanac Trader | February 4, 2021
From yesterday’s post, we knew February has a tepid recent record. In post-election years, February’s historically record has been even worse as historical average losses swell. In order to include as much data as we have available, we are using DJIA data since 1901, S&P 500 since 1930, NASDAQ from 1971 and Russell 1000& 2000 data beginning in 1979. When comparing post-election year February to the recent 21-year February seasonal pattern, the overall shape and trend does not change greatly however, weakness becomes more prevalent as the mid-month surge is less pronounced and second half declines expand.
Breaking down historical performance by year confirms frequent post-election-year February losses, most notably by NASDAQ and DJIA. Generally speaking, when February is positive it is an “ok” month, but when the month has been down, it has frequently been down by sizable amounts. There are seven double-digit losses in the table and not a single double-digit gain.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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