Dropping a stack on MAC. Actually a few stacks. I try to stay disciplined and buy/hold solid large caps long term. Growth income and value I like em all. Currently starting to write calls and puts on my holdings trying for small weekly gains with little risk. But I am still an intermittent degenerate and with the recent events it is hard to stay out of the casino section of the market. I feel like I am getting a little bit of everything with MAC so I am in today at 13.81.
Reading these boards for years but this is my first post. If my math or research is wrong I know one of you will correct it so chime in if you know better. Keep in mind I am using the same research sites as most of you. If you have different opinions lets hear those too.
SP jumped up last week but then got slammed back down due to that school board stock sale, now today new shares are coming out so dump continues. School board has retirement funds on the line in what used to be a stable income stock. So, of course they are gonna get out at a good price after months underwater. That was the right move for them. But for a few stacks of my non-retirement money I can jump in while they move out.
I might be overestimating a little bit but I see it as 150 mill outstanding shares plus roughly 35 mill new shares with the new shares today, so about 185 mill outstanding on the high end. Last available data shows 78 mill shorted. I am wondering if they used last 3 days to get out or are they doubling down. Betting they probably shorted the most recent pop again. Either way just a little under 50% short even with the 500 mill USD in new shares announced today.
Drop a stack on Mac right now and you get 70ish shares. 1 or 2 million buyers drop a stack in a hurry and thats a large percentage of the outstanding shares. Drop multiple stacks without selling and the supply decreases rapidly. Look at the price action last week. 105 million shares traded hands 22nd to 27th and SP doubled (13-26 at low/high) before the school board sale and more shorts dumped it again on the 28th. There is some press around the stock and a few others are out there promoting the MAC squeeze theory. Recent events show it is possible with some momentum. To me you have a better chance at a squeeze near term while shorts are still in the game and everybody is out there looking for the next one.
If there is no squeeze it will be hard to generate excitement on this one but just chill and hold. For value or income minded investors the 4% dividend at todays price is not bad to collect if you have to sit on it. In my view at worst this would come back the same time as the airlines and cruise ships one of the last sectors to recover. I don’t see it reaching any of its old highs without a squeeze but could still be a double 12-24 months down the line. Biggest risk long term is Corona keeps everything shut down for the next 4 years and you will probably lose that stack. But if not then it should be pretty safe.
So you get some squeeze potential, some post corona recovery potential, and 4% during the wait. You can afford to invest a stack or two for a couple of years if the squeeze doesn’t happen. Especially if you have been banking since the Covid slump last March. If not then you should not even be on this board with your lonely stack. But since you made it this far go ahead and drop it anyway.
PS – For the degenerates the 30 dollar call options for Feb 19th and March 19th could be had for pennies today. Only gamble with what you can afford to lose.
AI
