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Denninger: I Told You So - We Are

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basserdan Member Level  Sunday, 01/31/21 03:35:38 PM
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Denninger: I Told You So - We Are ****ed @mayorwaters

By Karl Denninger
2021-01-28 11:23

No, not just here.

NW Florida, you're ****ed.

All those VRBO and AirBNB rentals in this area, and the crazy price-ramps in little cottages and such with no storage all over various tourist parts of the nation, including the frenzy of them built here?

You're triple ****ed; they're not livable as full-time homes so without tourists the only value is in the land for a teardown/rebuild as a suitable single-family house. Hope you like the idea of a 50-70%+ loss if you own one of these because you're about to get one.

Dollywood, Gatlinburg, etc? You're ****ed and done.

Why?

DETROIT – General Motors wants to end production of all diesel- and gasoline-powered cars, trucks and SUVs by 2035 and shift its entire new fleet to electric vehicles as part of a broader plan to become carbon neutral by 2040, the company said Thursday.

Not a single "drive-to" destination survives this. Electric vehicles do not have the range and take too long to charge. Not one hotel can manage to charge a parking lot full of EV overnight -- they do not have and cannot acquire the electrical capacity. An EV cannot be parked outside in sub-freezing temperatures without being on charge as it must use energy to keep the pack warm as it cannot be charged under 32F and at -10F or so it may be destroyed. Since you can't charge it when cold and a 110V outlet will not both charge it and keep it warm you better be able to get to a high-rate charger with whatever is in the pack or you're screwed. At temperatures below 10F or so you need a high-amperage charging connection if outdoors in any sort of wind because you cannot sink enough current down a 120V 15A plug to keep the pack acceptably warm say much less charge it.

Yeah, around here that's not too much of a problem (even when it gets real cold the next day it's usually warm enough to be able to charge.) Try that out in Colorado or in Northern Michigan in the winter time and let me know how it works out if there's no plug wherever you park for the evening.

The Destin/Ft. Walton Beach area is a drive to destination with a huge percentage of the money driving the real estate there in condos, rentals and such coming from Atlanta, which is about a 5 hour drive.

Ditto for Traverse City MI and surrounding areas, Mackinaw City, virtually everything west of the Mississippi when it comes to parks and other tourism-dependent areas and more.

Nothing over 200 miles, and realistically nothing over 150 or so miles from someone's "home base" survives this change.

Why?

Because you can't safely make a trip at more ~60% of your rated capacity; one wreck and you're screwed in the summer as you can't sit there not moving with the A/C running for a couple of hours without winding up with a dead battery. You must therefore plan that reserve -- there is no other option.

Never mind the electrical infrastructure which does not exist to feed these things.

Folks, we are talking about a collapse of the drive-to tourism economy in the United States -- which will especially rat**** places like the Grand Canyon (forget it; it's all gone), Yellowstone (ditto) and others. Northern Michigan? Forget it; even Detroit is too far, say much less Chicago with its infamous traffic.

Between this and the attempt to destroy commercial aviation (currently with "Covid tests" but the real target is carbon emissions from airplanes) the economic destruction that is on tap will be catastrophic. We are talking tens of millions of jobs and trillions of dollars of real estate value, along with the tax revenue from same, that is about to go "poof."


This is what you voted for and are going to get. It is Biden's "new economy."

I warned you folks that what you were getting was a Carter-style move and while it would take a decade or so to really screw you it would screw you with certainty.

I spoke at the November County Commission meeting to warn that all the screamfest garbage about Covid, enacting mask mandates and cheering (never mind giving raises to the cops and others) the stupidity of other areas was ignoring the fact that the election just drove a stake into this area's tourism-driven heart -- not in a day, but with certainty.

Here it is, and here it comes; either stop it by whatever means you must or prepare to lose your jobs, your tax base and your economies.

They're gone.

PS: No, technology improvement will not solve this. It's a physics problem that you cannot overcome; a battery must carry its oxidizer inside the case. The energy density available thus will never be sufficient to solve that problem and thus both size and mass limit the advancement available, just as the realities of thermodynamics limit improvements in fuel economy for a gas or diesel engine. Charge acceptance rates and thus recharge speed, even if you had the grid capacity for very rapid recharges (we don't) are limited by internal resistance and thermal dissipation which are also hard physical limits you cannot get around. We have gotten most of what's possible already, just as we have with internal combustion engine economy. Physics and thermodynamics are not The 10 Suggestions!


http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=241445







Dan
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