CVM's True Value, let's compare Apples to Apples
The best comparison I can think of is Gilead's acquisition of Kite Pharmaceuticals.
The reason is Gilead is now refocusing, hence they spun Kite off in 2019 to focus on Oncology, their words. Also Geert has pointed to this buyout as an example of his company's potential worth.
Buy Out Key Points
* They paid 11.9 B in 2017 for a pseudo Oncology program, CAR-T Therapy treatment of relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma.
* The Product, Yescarta, was FDA approved two months later after the buyout.
They recently built a new 20 acre facility in Maryland to meet production needs.
* Yescarta treatments are $373,000. It generated $156 million and $296 million in sales during the second quarter and first half 2020. Expanded out, that almost 1b in revenue a year.
* They have a competitor, Norvartis and it's FDA approved Kymriah, with a treatment price of $474,000.
Norvartis was having production problems, because of the complexity of a similar treatment, requiring extraction of t-cells of the patients white blood cells, processed at the facility and reentered into the patient's body.
* In the first two years they treated roughly 2000 patients. It can only be administered after the patient has undergone lymphodepleting chemotherapy.
* Yescarta most reported toxicity symptoms are fever and hypotension.
CVM Key Points
* Multikine is a non-toxic, off the shelf, Head and Neck cancer treatment and possible cure. Goal is to be administered as Standard of Care, pre-chemo and radiation.
* Multikine has patent protection all over the world and orphan drug status, thus 7 years competition protection in the US.
* CVM will have a expanded manufacturing plant able to accommodate about 20k patients a year.
There are about 650k cases a year worldwide and 60k in the US.
* CVM could easily get 100k per 3 week treatment, which is about 2b in revenue a year after approval.
After a few years of successful treatments, the price could possibly go up pretty heftily on demand alone.
* If approved, doctors will be able to use it off-label for other squamous cell carcinoma cancers like lung and colon, increasing it's demand.
CVM Buyout Prediction
Gilead is having a patent expiration problem on some of their biggest money makers like Truvada, Letairis, Ranexa and others. They need a win in Oncology and soon.
If the CVM trial is successful , there will be a frenzy among the Oncology big phama companies to get their hands on it. The one who does, will dominate the cancer business for years.
Gilead paid 12B for a drug that has everything fault Multikine doesn't and produces half the revenue.
Geert has brought the company is worth 20B in the past and might very well demand that amount.
Will he get it? Possibly very close if a bidding war breaks out.
Needless to say with a possible 52M shares, with all outstanding warrants and options, any bid between 12B and 20B will generate a share price of $230 to almost $400.
My shares are waiting for $300 or higher.
AI
