Altria Group Inc (MO)

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The Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) Annual Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
By: Simply Wall St | January 31, 2021

The annual results for Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$21b and statutory earnings per share of US$2.40 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Altria Group is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, Altria Group's 13 analysts currently expect revenues in 2021 to be US$21.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 91% to US$4.59. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$21.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.60 in 2021. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$49.41, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Altria Group analyst has a price target of US$60.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$39.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Altria Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 1.8% growth ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.5% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 12% next year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Altria Group is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Altria Group's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$49.41, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year.

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