New coronavirus variants could cause deadly spring surge in U.S., researchers predict
WORCESTER MA. JANUARY 28: Katherine Perez Colon, part of the cleaning crew, dons full PPE before entering rooms on the covid floor at Umass Medical Center on January 28, 2021 in Worcester, MA. The space was formerly used for oncology and was transformed into covid positive, non-ICU use. (Staff Photo By Nancy Lane/Media News Group/Boston Herald)
By MEGHAN OTTOLINI | meghan.ottolini@bostonherald.com | Boston Herald
PUBLISHED: January 29, 2021 at 6:42 p.m. | UPDATED: January 29, 2021 at 6:43 p.m.
New strains of COVID-19 could cause a deadly spike in cases across the U.S. this spring, researchers from the University of Washington warn.
“We are very concerned,” said one of the lead researchers, Dr. Ali Mokdad, who called the new virus mutations “very alarming.”
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation have incorporated two new variants, including the virus variant first detected in South Africa, into their case forecasting with sobering results: up to 654,000 Americans could die of some strain of coronavirus by May 1.
Mokdad said the South African strain is particularly dangerous because it shows a higher rate of death among those infected.
But that forecast is based on preparing for the worst-case scenario, researchers said, and Americans could bring that number down by 30,000 through continued social distancing and masking over the next several months — even if they’ve received vaccination.
“Unless you reach herd immunity, the virus is still circulating out there,” Mokdad said, noting that the U.S. is “not near herd immunity.”
University of Washington researchers have included the COVID-19 variant first found in the United Kingdom in all of their new projections.
Data projections show mistrust in the vaccination process will impact how long it takes for the U.S. to reach herd immunity.
According to their own data, IHME researchers found that a quarter of Americans would reject a vaccine, and another 25% haven’t made up their mind. They estimate only 38% of U.S. residents will be vaccinated by May 1.
Researchers predict a spring surge in coronavirus cases would hit Florida and California the hardest, with case numbers ramping back up rather than falling.
Mokdad said that’s in part because those areas of the country are just now hitting a surge of cases after the holiday season.
“They’re in a much worse position,” he said.
According to the IHME, Massachusetts residents have a much more positive view of receiving COVID-19 vaccination: 66% of Bay Staters say they plan to get the vaccine when it’s made available to them.
But even when the vaccine is widely available to the general pubic, Mokdad estimates just 75% of Americans can take it. Children and some individuals with pre-existing medical conditions will not be able to receive the vaccination right away.
“The key issue moving forward is, if we get the vaccine, we have to contain our urge to celebrate and move back from the new normal. That’s the only way to contain this pandemic,” he said.
