thanks Mcbeanburger. Interesting take but convoluted and flawed reasoning IMO
A few points. A month ago SA listed among its three weapons against Iran as flooding world with oil but it was discounted as an idle threat as it would hurt it and its allies in OPEC as well, a self defeating last ditch type of approach that would shatter OPEC likely fatally.
As for Israeli dependence on Russian oil tieing its hands, hogwash. Other pipelines, tankers etc would be used to replace lost supply. So yes afactor but not enough for Isreal to back down. As for worries about killing russian technical advisors, that never stopped them before so why now?
As for US and European sanctions threatening Russia and China, well thats the nub, they have not blinked and have refused to back down from such investments, in Chinas case all over the world. The jury is out as to US willing to go this route as they are vulnerable as well. We have known for a long time that China and Russia are deeply wrapped into the Iranian situation and so far only talk from Washington, wheres the meat.
Further i categorically reject the assumption that the econimic card has trumped the military option, both options continue to evolve simultaneously. War could come at any moment and definitely not ruled out.
As an aside very interesting how the buildup in the Gulf was in preparation for attack in Horn of africa rather than Iran. For quite sometime I have expected Bush to open a new front here and bam it happens. Once again a new war and no congressional approval as executive beleives part of 'war on terror'. Taking out a good government supported by the people in Somali and replacing it with its rogue puppets of warlords hated by the populance while the media and congress remain mum.
