The Case For Cytodyn
Considerations For The Near Future.
1. HIV At The Finish Line.
HIV BLA was denied primarily for the self injecting device not being ready for market. I saw this is the primary reason because this is much harder to correct than submitting the additional information for the 700mg data.
While it would be nice to have them just sell the vials, new information has come to light that actually makes it better to have self injecting devices for use at home. According to the CDC, and other agencies the African strain of COVID is actually deadlier and spreads faster. BBC News just reported the US has reinstated the international travel ban. It's that bad. We are projected to see the new strains take hold in March. So having a device that allows people to stay at home, away from the strained hospitals makes a lot of sense.
2. COVID
Everyone's favorite topic. COVID just doesn't seem to be letting up any time soon. Merck just gave up both it's vaccine candidates for lack of a response. Current US vaccine levels are disputed, the prior adminstration pretty much trashed as much as it could on the way out the door. So logistics is a mess. The new strains are creating questions regarding effectiveness of the vaccines.
We have seen some projections on the board about what the numbers might look like. At best they are voodoo. They are not backed by science or any form of credible analytics. So people claiming it is the end all be all are wrong as much as those claiming it's snake oil. Because neither opinion has any basis in fact.
There are only indications. Those indications have come from the papers and EINDs. Those indications are positive. The negative indications largely stem from the CD-10 trial. Just as the EIND indications aren't solid gold data points because its not coming from a study, the CD-10 equals CD-12 results is equally a polished turd. The clinical difference between severe and mild cases is night and day. Attempting to apply the results from CD-10 for CD-12 is poor analytics and an exercise in futility.
The real positive indicator is the fact that the primary end point of mortality has remained the same. It's thus far the only therapeutic that has an end point of mortality reduction. The DSMC gave us some insight to where we are headed. It is by no means a solid gold indicator, but it is still and indicator.
3. Current Sentiment Around Short Sellers
The past few days has made for an interesting case study in retail versus institutional investors. I'm speaking of the GME run that occurred costing short sellers 3.3 billion. It appears retail investors don't like these short selling entities driving the market narrative. Closer inspection reveals that over shorted stocks are a favorite target because the short squeezes turn into a cycle that drives prices upward.
So how does this apply to CYDY? Well the same short seller that attacked us, Citron, attacked GME. It attacked GME and got margin called in a brutal run up. Reptuations have been ruined. Melvin Capitol had two other funds try to bail it out only to see a hedge fund essentially get shut down in attempt to stem the tide. That dislike very well may translate to CYDY's situation. We absolutely have to take it into account because the new reality of the market is there proof that retailers are now punching back against institutional players.
The narrative for overshorting and predatory short selling, bad actors, and people claiming to be giving you just the facts are all there. The kind of powder keg you want if you want activist retail buyers rallying around your company.
The fact that Citron had a report pulled shortly after a successful bear raid last year makes the story even more compelling. Anyone looking at this site and its introduction board will see there is a negative slant against the company. They will see Buyersstrike! and who is behind it, and even Adam Feuerstein who did his part at one point. So you have to consider just the facts here. We have a concentrated effort against he company. One that might compel long shot investors and activists to rally against the negative narrative here.
The X-factor becomes uplisting. Where options come into play along with future news of approvals and clinical results for cancer trials. If Robinhood investors are looking for their next "gamble" as the old guard calls it, CYDY could very well be it.
Conclusion
Based on upcoming trial information, HIV getting squared away, and new market sentiments against short selling, CYDY is a buy to me.
