Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[GD]

Here is a simple math estimate of OS:
Enrollments: 135 up to 2013, 196 in 2014, 340 in 2015, 260 in 2016
there are 800 patients for SAP analysis, 400 for MK+SOC, 400 for SOC, 800/930=86%,
135+196+340=671X0.86=577 patients have 5 years, and SOC OS 37%
which should produce 577X63%=363 events, 260X0.86=224 patients have
4 years, and SOC OS 42%, 224X58%=130 events, total 363+224=493 events
if MK does not work, we know the trail has only 298 events, so the
trial produces SOC OS 1-(492/800)=38.4%, the real MK trial OS is
1-(298/800)=62.7%, logic conclusion is: SOC does improved a lot
that help patients live much longert(trial fails), OR MK really
works well for lot of the MK+SOC patients(Strong efficacy), or
combo of SOC improvments+MK helps too(trial may be win with
weak OS HR or fail), I bet MK WINS big!