Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[kgromax]

2 parts:

(A) Statistical
I determined that the study was under-powered to detect any meaningful effect on the primary endpoint. That is, with so few patients it would fail (reaching the primary endpoint with statistical significance) with >99% probability. This is exactly what happened.
It took some work, it wasn't a back of the enveloppe estimate, as I had to review all the existing research literature at this time to frame various probabilities (mortality, survival curves, soc)

(B) Financial
The company had all the patterns of a pump & dump fraud. A looong list of them. I have shorted >100 frauds over the last 10 years after I became independent and it is rare to see all the patterns matched. Cytodyn is such a case. Nader is very good to pump his business, I see longs criticizing his accent and sometimes obvious mistakes. But they dont realize how good he is to sell dreams compared to most frauders out there. The company would never be there without him.

I reached the same conclusion for the pending CD12 trial on both counts.