Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[Petz]

Speaking of trading strategies -- how about using seasonality. We are coming up on the best 6 months of the year to hold AMD, historically: http://insider.thomsonfn.com/tfn/stocks.asp?imodule=seasonal...

After seeing this, I filled in missing data from ThomsonFn and did some spreadsheet manipulation. If you bought AMD the last day of October and held it until the close on the last day of April, you would have the following % gains:
Year
Sold Gain/Loss
------ -------------
2003 21.3
2002 13.8
2001 37.0
2000 341.5
1999 -26.9
1998 20.6
1997 139.5
1996 -20.7
1995 36.4
1994 33.5
1993 70.3
1992 40.2
1991 216.1
1990 11.1
1989 -1.5
1988 25.1
1987 60.9

The average gain for these 6-month holding periods is 60%. Even if you throw away two best periods, the average gain is still 31%. Norman Fosback would be proud of this one!

Haven't checked yet if shorting the other six months would pay off or not. Nothing is guaranteed, but I think I have a possible explanation for the effect: Investors and analysts underestimate the seasonality of AMD's earnings -- blowout Q4 earnings, and meltdown Q2 earnings really affect this stock.

Petz